A short-lived La Niña may hit the country as early as September, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced Tuesday.

In a statement, PAGASA said that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral phase is expected to last from August to October, “model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the September-October-November season until the October-November-December season.”

La Niña is characterized by unusually cool sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. PAGASA issues a “La Niña Watch” when there is a 55 percent or greater chance of its development.

The state weather bureau warned that La Niña could bring an above-average number of tropical cyclones and above-normal rainfall toward the end of the year, which could trigger floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.

PAGASA said it will continue to monitor the possibility of La Niña and its effects on the local climate.