When, oh when, are we ever going to have a modicum of stability in the politics of our country?

Here we go again, surely another period of instability and economic uncertainty until this business of Sara Duterte’s impeachment is settled, one way or the other. My guess is this will rock us to our core until 2028.

So what was the fuse that lit the current conundrum and what can we learn from our history with impeachment trials?

Hogging the headlines for several months now is the impeachment of VP Sara Duterte on charges of corruption, betrayal of public trust, and an alleged assassination plot against President Bongbong Marcos.

The articles of impeachment were endorsed by the House of Representatives, dominated by allies of the administration, to the Senate for what is expected to be a trial to rival the drama of former President Joseph Estrada’s abbreviated impeachment trial, also on grounds of corruption in January 2001.

The impeachment trial of Erap plunged the Philippines into a political crisis when 11 senators had a slim majority of one over the 10 senators who favored opening the envelope that supposedly contained material evidence that would nail Estrada.

The decision to block the opening of the envelope triggered massive cries for Erap to step down. The straw that broke the camel’s back was the military’s withdrawal of support from Estrada, which set the stage for Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to be sworn in as the 14th President of the Philippines with the same cast of characters, the clergy, the business sector, and the military who were prominent during Edsa 1 taking center stage anew on Edsa.

The installation of GMA initially brought some sense of stability after the exchange rate had rocketed from around P40 to the dollar in early 2000 to as high as P54 in 2001 as the corruption charges against Erap were hotly debated. The stock market index dropped from 2000 points in 1999 to below 1500, exacerbated by the BW Resources-induced stock market volatility, and any business expansions were deferred as local and foreign investors adopted quite naturally a wait-and-see attitude.

Today’s impeachment version coincided with the breakup of the Unity Team of the Duterte and Marcos clans, resulting in headline-grabbing brickbats thrown at each other’s camps. After the House of Representatives decisively garnered a majority vote to impeach Sara Duterte in February, the ball was thrown to the Senate’s court, as mandated by the Constitution, which for reasons we could only speculate, seems primarily to be centered on concerns about the reelectionist senators’ own political prospects in 2028 that could be affected by how they would vote.

Using as a basis the possible lack of constitutionality of the impeachment by the House, particularly on the one-year ban on multiple impeachments, in a vote of 18 versus five the senators remanded the impeachment complaint back to the House, effectively delaying the trial.

Of course, another speculation for the real concern of the senators is the recent election, which had lackluster results for the administration candidates while the Duterte camp and some independent bets emerged stronger, possibly foreshadowing what will happen in 2028.

In all probability, the determination of the constitutionality or lack of it of the impeachment complaint will eventually be passed on to the Supreme Court for a final judgement. How long that process will take, nobody can really predict. In the meantime, peoples’ and business groups have started to agitate for the trial to continue. And unfortunately for our country, this renewed uncertainty will surely impact our economic prospects in the coming weeks.

If past history will repeat itself, we will have to fasten our seat belts and keep our fingers crossed that the coming storm will not lead to delays in policy reform measures, a rout of our financial markets, and a nightmarish scenario of the upending of our democratic processes.

Until next week… OBF!