With the conclusion of the 2025 midterm elections, the focus of Philippine politics has dramatically shifted to the looming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.

The charges against her — alleged misuse of confidential funds, obstruction of legislative oversight, and political overreach — have stirred public debate and polarized opinion.

But beyond the legal merits of the case, one crucial factor is likely to determine the outcome: the new composition of the Senate, now stacked with Duterte-aligned lawmakers following a successful electoral showing.

Based on the latest senatorial results, the Marcos-Duterte alliance may have publicly fractured, but many of Duterte’s loyalists secured Senate seats. These include topnotcher Bong Go, returning Sen. Bato dela Rosa, Duterte ally Rodante Marcoleta, Sara-endorsed Camille Villar, and yes, presidential sister Imee Marcos. The numbers become clear: The vice president likely enjoys the support of at least 12 to 14 senators — just shy of a blocking minority.

Since conviction in an impeachment trial requires a two-thirds vote (16 of 24 senators), Duterte may only need nine votes to escape removal from office. By that count, her acquittal appears not only possible but probable.

This is no accident. The 2025 midterms were, in part, a battle for survival for the vice president, who had been increasingly isolated by the Marcos administration after distancing herself from the president and resigning as education secretary.

Her quiet but calculated campaign to bolster her allies paid off — ensuring that the Senate would remain a friendly arena should impeachment reach its final stage. The results reflect the durability of her base in Mindanao and other strongholds, as well as the enduring appeal of the Duterte brand among voters seeking firm leadership.

While the House of Representatives voted to impeach, likely due to pressure from the president’s camp and a desire to corner Duterte ahead of 2028, the Senate is a different battlefield. It is less prone to populist pressure and more influenced by political calculations, favors owed, and survival instincts.

Many of the senators elected or reelected in 2025 will be in office through the next administration — some of them with presidential ambitions of their own. For these lawmakers, siding with Duterte could be a hedge against the possibility of her ascending to power in 2028, especially if public sympathy swings in her favor amid perceived political persecution.

That said, not all senators are expected to blindly defend her. Opposition Sen. Risa Hontiveros and a few independents have signaled that they will scrutinize the charges carefully. Still, without the numbers, their role will likely be limited to symbolic dissent unless new, incontrovertible evidence surfaces.

In all likelihood, the trial will result in Sara Duterte’s acquittal. While the proceedings will be a political spectacle, the outcome seems predetermined by mathematics — and the alliances forged in the aftermath of the elections.

The impeachment may damage her image in the short term, but surviving it could turn her into a political martyr and energize her base ahead of the 2028 presidential race.