On paper, the economy appears ready for another breakout to solidify its status as a growth leader in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a beacon of resilience and opportunity in an uncertain global landscape.

The Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) recent projections paint a rosy picture for the Philippines, forecasting a robust gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6 percent in 2025 and 6.1 percent in 2026.

This positions the country as a standout performer within ASEAN, a region widely regarded as a vital engine of global economic development. The optimism is well-founded: steady growth is driven by vigorous domestic demand, sustained public investment, moderate inflation, accommodative monetary policy and ongoing reforms to enhance the investment climate.

Fiscal reforms, particularly the ambitious Build Better More (BBM) program, have prioritized infrastructure spending, amplifying economic momentum with a high multiplier effect.

The rosy outlook, however, is not without drawbacks. Beneath the surface of promising projections that hinge on a delicate balance of domestic and international factors, any disruption could derail sustained prosperity.

According to an analyst, the heavy reliance on infrastructure as a growth catalyst is a double-edged sword.

While investments in roads, bridges, and ports have undeniable potential to stimulate economic activity, delays in project implementation could stall progress.

The Philippines has a long history of bureaucratic red tape, land acquisition disputes, and corruption scandals that have bogged down even the most well-intentioned infrastructure initiatives.

The Build Better More program, an extension of the previous administration’s efforts, may falter if it encounters similar roadblocks, undermining the high multiplier effect the ADB touts.

Moreover, the fiscal reforms underpinning this growth are not set in stone. Political instability, coming from either internal power struggles or public discontent over governance, could lead to the reversal of policies, eroding the investment climate that has been so carefully cultivated.

For all its domestic strengths, the Philippines is also not immune to external shocks.

A sudden slowdown in major economies like the United States, China, or the European Union could dampen demand for Philippine exports, a critical component of its growth engine.

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, announced in a White House Rose Garden ceremony branded “Make America Wealthy Again,” imposed a baseline 10-percent tariff on all US imports, with higher “reciprocal tariffs” targeting specific trading partners, such as a 34-percent rate on Chinese goods and 17-percent for the Philippines effective 9 April.

The tariff blitz raised the potential for a global economic slowdown. The US, a significant export destination for the Philippines, could see reduced consumer demand as prices rise, dampening imports from ASEAN nations. Economists warn that Trump’s policy risks igniting a tit-for-tat trade war, with retaliatory tariffs by affected countries like China and the European Union further constricting global trade flows.

The ADB’s projections assume a stable international environment, but “Liberation Day” injects uncertainty, potentially slashing demand for Philippine goods and stalling the momentum of domestic industries.

Geopolitical tensions, such as the escalating conflict in the West Philippine Sea and trade disputes among the superpowers, could further complicate the picture, disrupting supply chains and rattling investor confidence.

The ASEAN region may be a driver of global development, but it is also deeply intertwined with the fortunes of the broader world — a vulnerability the Philippines cannot escape.

Another wild card is the country’s ability to maintain moderate inflation and an accommodative monetary policy in the face of global pressures. Rising energy and food prices, driven by climate shocks or international market volatility, could push inflation beyond manageable levels, forcing the central bank to tighten policy and temper economic activity.

Even the Philippines’ stellar performance within ASEAN could lose its luster if regional peers falter, dragging down the collective momentum.

The economic breakout is a tightrope walk, vulnerable to external storms and internal missteps.

Potential spoilers include global slowdowns, geopolitical flare-ups, supply chain hiccups, infrastructure delays, political turbulence, and inflationary pressures.

Engines can sputter, so the country must be ready for a bumpy ride.