Is the Philippines ready for the ‘Big One’?
Metro Manila remains highly vulnerable despite some improvements in disaster risk management.
On 28 March, Myanmar and Thailand were hit with a 7.7 magnitute earthquake, devastating the two countries with the damage it caused.
The Philippines, an archipelago nestled along the Pacific Ring of Fire, is no stranger to earthquakes. Every year, thousands of quakes shake various parts of the country, with most causing minimal damage. But looming over all of them is the fear of “The Big One” — a hypothetical, but highly probable, massive earthquake expected to strike the West Valley Fault, which traverses Metro Manila and surrounding provinces. The question remains: Is the Philippines ready?
“The Big One” refers to a potentially catastrophic magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the West Valley Fault. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) warns that this fault is capable of producing such an event, which could lead to tens of thousands of casualties, the collapse of infrastructure and widespread fires and panic across the National Capital Region.
SEARCH and rescue teams work tirelessly to look for survivors.
The Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MIERS), conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and Phivolcs, predicts that a magnitude 7.2 quake could result in approximately 34,000 deaths from building collapses and 100,000 injuries due to structural failures. Additionally, 500,000 buildings could be damaged, with 170,000 completely collapsing. Fires could cause an additional 18,000 fatalities, while infrastructure disruptions — such as road damage, power outages and water supply failures — would worsen the crisis.
According to PLANADES executive director and UP School of Urban and Regional Planning professor Dr. Tabassam Raza, Metro Manila remains highly vulnerable despite some improvements in disaster risk management.
“Preparedness must move beyond policies and drills. The key lies in enforcement, education and community-level action,” says Dr. Raza.
While efforts like MMDA’s Shake Drill and updates to the National Building Code are commendable, many buildings still fail to meet seismic standards — especially in informal settlements and aging districts. Critical lifeline infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, power and water systems, remains highly exposed to damage, which would severely hamper emergency response efforts.
