Tight Senate race seen
‘Probable rank considers the inherent imprecision of surveys, as they are based on samples of a population. A well-designed and executed survey is accurate but not precise’
‘Probable rank considers the inherent imprecision of surveys, as they are based on samples of a population. A well-designed and executed survey is accurate but not precise’
The race for Senate seats remains fluid, according to the latest findings from a monthly senatorial preference tracking survey released Wednesday.
In the December 2024 survey by Insightspedia Inc., it found that 14 candidates have a high probability of ranking within the top 12, with several others still in contention.
Lawmakers Erwin Tulfo and Tito Sotto are statistically tied for the top two spots. Broadcasters Ben Tulfo and Senator Christopher “Bong” Go are also statistically tied for third and fourth place.
The battle for fifth place is a tight race between former Senator Ping Lacson, physician Willie Ong, Senator Bato dela Rosa and boxing champion Manny Pacquiao.
Candidates with a probable rank of 6th to 13th include Senator Pia Cayetano, former lawmaker Bam Aquino and Senator Imee Marcos. Former Senators Bong Revilla and Gringo Honasan, along with TV personality Willie Revillame, are also in contention but face a higher risk of falling out of the top 12.
“Probable rank considers the inherent imprecision of surveys, as they are based on samples of a population. A well-designed and executed survey is accurate but not precise,” said Rolland Ramirez, managing director of Insightspedia Inc.
“These probabilities provide critical information on the risk of a candidate dropping out of the top 12, something nominal rankings alone cannot reveal. Relying solely on nominal rankings can be a fatal mistake for a campaign,” he added.
Ramirez highlighted the value of tracking performance.
“In the 6th-13th tier, for example, Bam Aquino had the largest percentage point increase, gaining 5 points from last month. This suggests he has momentum and that his true standing is likely on the higher end of his range or approaching it,” he said.
Ramirez also cited strong momentum for Villar, Honasan, and Revillame, all currently hovering around the low 12th-place probability range or just beyond it.
“If their momentum continues, I would not be surprised if, in next month’s iteration, these four candidates obtain probable ranks more firmly in the safe zone,” Ramirez said.
While rankings draw attention, Ramirez stressed that securing a top-12 position is the ultimate goal.
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