Mindanao-based scholar and longtime peace advocate Eliseo Mercado Jr. recently claimed that President Duterte easily can turn Mindanao into a federal state within his term.

Mercado, who also serves as a senior policy adviser of the Institute for Autonomy and Governance, said Duterte has the popularity and will power to do so.

“Congress is within the grips of the President. I don’t know if I can say the same with the Supreme Court (SC), but seemingly there is what we call the President’s strong influence over the management and control over the structures of the government,” ANC’s “Early Edition” quoted Mercado.

Apparently, this talk of a federal state in Mindanao stemmed from Duterte’s visit to Davao when he held a meeting with Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) founding chairman Nur Misuari, where the two had agreed to form a coordinating committee to discuss peace efforts in Sulu.

Duterte has repeatedly said he hopes to reach an agreement with Misuari, whom he has said warned him of war should government fail to pursue a shift to Federalism.

Mercado, being a senior policy adviser, certainly should know that despite Duterte’s popularity and hold over Congress — at least over the House of Representatives — under the present system in which government operates, neither Misuari nor the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leaders, who now enjoy autonomy but with still nothing to show by way of peace in Mindanao nor, for that matter, professional governance despite tax money being poured in, Duterte cannot just turn Mindanao into a federal state.

It can be argued by the “federalists” in Mindanao that Duterte’s popularity in pushing a federal state of Mindanao has already been pretested in his push to bring together all Muslim and Christians on the plebiscite for the MILF-led autonomous region under a parliamentary setup, which really goes against the constitutional grain, given the fact that the country, under the Constitution, operates under a presidential system with a bicameral Congress that is hardly anything like a parliament — or for that matter, a parliament run by the MILF rebels who are hardly politicians but fighters.

Duterte was able to grant MILF its desire to be in control of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao — although this issue is under question at the SC, which seems to be deliberately slow in ruling on the issue. Turning Mindanao into a federal state operating under a parliamentary system hardly rests on the President’s popularity. He may wish it but he can’t get a federal state of Mindanao going — not in his last three years, and not even beyond the years of his successor — whoever he or she will be.

Unless of course, he declares martial law in the whole Philippines, which would be a very unpopular move and bring his present popularity downhill.

The reason the dream of a federal state in Mindanao can hardly be realized just on the popularity of Duterte is constitutionally simple: Unless the present Constitution’s provisions are amended, and it cannot just be a simple amendment since other provisos of the Constitution also have to be amended, to be aligned with other provisions that will have to remain. It’s not that easy.

That’s not the only problem in such a constitutional move. True, Duterte still enjoys the support of the majority of Filipinos. However, for such a move to get a federal state of Mindanao, or even get the entire Philippines to junk the present system of government and to embrace the federal system to get Charter change moving, hardly depends on presidential popularity, as cha-cha to come about has to follow the constitutional rules beforehand. Cha-cha has been tried too many times by too many presidents and all proved unsuccessful.

Then, too, Filipinos aren’t that enamored with Federalism — not for the country, and certainly not for a separate State of Muslim Mindanao.

The MILF was already given more than an inch in getting not only an autonomous region in Mindanao, including Cotabato, a mostly Christian province, and was also granted a government to be run by the MILF under a parliamentary system, which goes against the Constitution. And now they want the whole hog by having a federal state of Mindanao, and again, with the promise of peace that can hardly be had, since Muslims are tribal and Christians hardly want Muslims to rule over them and their land.

Time to give up the idea of federalism in Mindanao, as this is a step towards the Muslims’ dream of having an independent Muslim sovereign state, through their secession moves.