The market for OFW in the Middle East has stopped growing and has started to decline making a gradual shift in labor export policies necessary, 2nd District of Leyte Rep. Henry C. Ong said.

“It is time for a major but gradual shift our OFW policies. Those who want to stay in the Middle East can of course do so. OFW from the Middle East will remit anywhere from $8 billion to $9 billion in the coming several years—near-term to medium-term, but the growth rates or pace will be slower and slower,” said the vice chair of the Committee on Banks & Financial Intermediaries.

Ong proposed the preparation for a slowdown of remittances from the Middle East as early as now.

“The Philippines should start more new deployment to other countries where OFWs are welcome, needed, respected, and cared for. We should have bilateral labor agreements with them. They should be signatories to and have ratified international conventions on migrant workers,” he said.

The growth rates of cash remittances from the Middle East have been slowing down in the past years as demand for OFW in that region is slowing down.

“The numbers are clear. Remittances from the Middle East are still rising, but very slowly now at single digit pace and that is the proof of the approach to saturation,” said Ong.

“We will not see remittance growth rates from the Middle East above 20 percent again unless crude oil prices return to over $100 per barrel, which has become improbable now because the world community convinced the key OPEC countries that having high crude prices slows down economic growth worldwide,” said Ong.

“Based on the cash remittances data of the Bangko Sentral, it looks like the saturation point will be well below $9 billion annually and this saturation point will be reached within the next four to five years,” he said.

“After that, remittances from the Middle East will either stay on that plateau or go downhill, but it will not climb another mountain anymore. The world community will not let crude oil prices skyrocket to above $100 again because of the adverse impact on the global economy,” Ong said.