Financial analysts still see a positive outlook and sustained momentum for the Philippine economy despite concerns from the so-called “ghost month,” which begins on 11 August to 9 September.
Philstocks’ head of research Justino Calaycay, Jr. said there is nothing to fear as, traditionally, August provides a “balanced” investment atmosphere.
“The ghost month has no significant impact so far on the market for the past ten years.
There is an equal number of years in which stocks fell and rose during the period,” Calaycay said in a phone interview.
He added the business community remains bullish on the country’s prospect as reflected by the affirmation of credit ratings Fitch and Moody’s of the Philippines above-investment grade ratings with a stable outlook.
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Regina Capital’s Luis Limlingan said he expects a sustained GDP (gross domestic product) growth for the second quarter which will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority by 9 August.
“If it will be within the administration’s acceptable range, then it is still likely that it will happen,” Limlingan said in an email.
GDP during the first quarter grew by 6.8 percent, higher by 0.3 percent than the last quarter of 2017.
However, Calaycay projected a slightly lower GDP growth in the second quarter. “The GDP will be more likely to be in between 6.3 and 6.7 percent, as the recent inflation can have a major impact on its growth.”
With the June 2018 inflation hitting a five-year high of 5.2 percent, both Calaycay and Limlingan agreed that the number for July would be higher. The Philstocks’ research head forecasted inflation between 5.4 and 5.6 percent, while the Regina Capital’s managing director predicted a 5.7 percent inflation for the month, “given higher prices for electricity, fuel and food.”