Madrid, Spain (AFP) — Eight wins, the most by an Italian driver in a single season, and blessed with good fortune as well as extreme talent, it is no longer a question of if Kimi Antonelli will win the drivers’ world championship, but when?

In a season of uncertain length, with the final two races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi remaining in doubt, there are various permutations in terms of the points likely to be required for an unassailable advantage.

As Antonelli closes in on becoming Italy’s first champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953, AFP Sport looks at three talking points from Sunday’s processional Spanish Grand Prix at the new Madring circuit:

More records ready to be broken by Antonelli

The 20-year-old prodigy from Bologna already has a lead of 81 points ahead of his Mercedes teammate George Russell, who has abandoned talk of his own title bid.

If the season includes a two-race finale in the Middle East, where the US-Israeli war with Iran makes this doubtful, he will need 153 points, from the 233 available, to become champion.

A total of 152 might be enough, thanks to his tie-breaking supremacy in number of race wins — offering up the prospect of Antonelli taking his maiden title in Singapore next month.

But if the season is reduced from 23 races to 22, with a final race taking place at Imola, close to Antonelli’s hometown, on 6 December, a reduced maximum of 208 points will be on offer, and the target falls to 127 — which may be achievable in Mexico on 1 November.

If he succeeded in Mexico, he would take the title aged 20 years, two months and eight days — thus reducing the record for youngest world champion held by four-time champion Sebastian Vettel by three years.

Norris’ bad luck with safety rules

World champion Lando Norris described himself as “insanely unlucky” not to win Sunday’s race as a result of the timing of a Virtual Safety Car (VSC) that was called seconds after he passed the pit lane entry.

It cost him a “cheap” pit stop and handed the initiative to his rivals, Charles Leclerc of Ferrari and Antonelli, who waited for the Monegasque driver to make his essential pit stop before seizing victory with aplomb.

Antonelli and others pitted during the VSC, saving time and gaining an approximate 20-second advantage on Norris, who had to fight back from fifth to finish third behind four-time champion Max Verstappen of Red Bull.

It was clearly unfair on Norris to be penalised for being the fastest driver on track and leading at the time when Lance Stroll lost control of his Aston Martin and went into the barriers.

“It is a rule that should not define a whole race,” said Norris. “I was the only one on the whole grid that didn’t get the chance to do the pit stop.”

His McLaren team boss Andrea Stella said: “Perhaps there’s a wider reflection that the F1 community should apply, as to whether you keep things like they are — or you introduce ways of maintaining more fairness.”

Honda makes changes

Fernando Alonso was more than two seconds off the pace when he was eliminated from qualifying at his home race on Saturday, a clear sign his Honda-powered Aston Martin was lacking power.

As the two-time world champion publicly ponders his future, Honda announced a change of leadership for their engine programme. It may, however, be too late to persuade Alonso to stay for another year.