Fears of another African swine fever outbreak are pushing hog raisers to sell their animals earlier than planned, driving down pork prices rather than a surge in imports, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said.

Tiu Laurel said producers expanded their herds after pork prices climbed sharply last year, but many are now rushing to bring hogs to market before the rainy season increases the risk of ASF outbreaks.

“Rather than risk getting hit by ASF, or having an outbreak occur next door, they want to sell everything before they are affected,” Tiu Laurel said.

He described the rush as a “fastbreak” that has increased the supply of hogs reaching markets and pulled farmgate prices lower.

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that pork production rose 5.6 percent to 412,280 metric tons in the second quarter. Despite higher output, average farmgate prices dropped nearly 19 percent to P172.44 per kilo from P211.91 a year earlier.

Tiu Laurel said the same trend was seen in Mindanao, where pork prices declined despite limited imported pork entering the region. An Agriculture department review pointed to local hog raisers selling animals early as the main driver of the decline.

Last year’s higher prices had encouraged producers to expand. Liempo reached P450 to P490 per kilo, while kasim climbed to about P400.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Animal Industry expects pork imports this year to fall by around 50,000 metric tons from the 851,760 tons recorded in 2025, as local production improves.

The rollout of a commercially available ASF vaccine could further support the industry by giving hog raisers greater confidence to rebuild their herds.

The government is also constructing an ASF vaccine manufacturing laboratory at Central Luzon State University, targeted for completion next year.