Motorists could see diesel prices creep back toward P100 per liter again next week as another round of fuel price increases threatens to squeeze household and transport budgets further.

Based on industry data from Monday to Thursday, diesel prices could increase by P1.75 to P2.25 per liter, while gasoline could rise by P1.00 to P1.50 per liter next week. 

If the forecast holds, regular diesel prices in the National Capital Region could climb to between P78.75 and P99.75 per liter, while Diesel Plus could reach P88.74 to P103.09 per liter.

Gasoline prices could also move higher, with RON 91 potentially ranging from P65.20 to P91.00 per liter, RON 95 from P66.20 to P95.20, and RON 97/100 from P70.26 to P98.07.

In a text message on Friday, Jetti Petroleum Inc. President Leo Bellas said the renewed upward pressure stems largely from geopolitical risks that are again building into global oil prices.

“Oil prices climbed due to a rebuild in the geopolitical premium as prospects for a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran conflict and normalization of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have dimmed,” Bellas said.

He added that the expiration of the mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding and indications that both sides intend to take a harder line have led markets to price in the possibility of a prolonged crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern for petroleum markets as disruptions to flows through the waterway constrain the availability of Middle Eastern oil.

Supply risks are also building elsewhere, with Bellas pointing to Black Sea loading disruptions and concerns over Russian supply at a time when replacement crude remains important to offset reduced Middle Eastern availability.

Diesel remains particularly exposed to these pressures as global physical balances remain fragile despite improving replacement supplies from China.

Bellas said concerns persist over low inventories, reduced availability in the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, and constrained Russian exports.

Gasoline prices in Asia are also being supported by reduced crude feedstock flows through the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions along the alternative Red Sea route, although increasing supplies from India and China are helping limit further upside.

Continued attacks on Russia's refining sector are adding to the pressure by keeping global petroleum product supplies tight.