Lower gasoline prices may provide little comfort as soaring diesel and kerosene costs threaten to drive fuel expenses higher.

Based on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) price guidance for the week, retailers are expected to implement a rollback of up to P1.70 per liter for gasoline effective tomorrow morning. 

However, the modest reduction is overshadowed by a hefty increase of P3.77 to P5.77 per liter for diesel and P6.10 to P8.10 per liter for kerosene.

While the DOE did not provide an explanation for the projected adjustments, an industry source said oil prices climbed on concerns over prolonged supply disruptions following stalled peace negotiations and renewed threats by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.

"Crude oil and refined fuel product prices rallied this week on worries of stalled diplomacy and prolonged supply disruption," the source said.

The source added that fears of shrinking global oil inventories further boosted bullish market sentiment.

The looming adjustments would push diesel prices to an estimated retail range of P70.91 to P91.09 per liter nationwide, while premium diesel products could climb as high as P95.01 per liter.

Kerosene, a fuel used by some households and industries, is expected to post the steepest increase, with pump prices potentially reaching P137.24 per liter in some areas.

Following the adjustment, RON 97/100 gasoline is projected to range between P74.52 and P105.04 per liter, while RON 95 and RON 91 gasoline are expected to sell between P66.94 and P97.28 per liter, and P65.94 and P95.35 per liter, respectively.

In terms of supply, DOE data showed gasoline stocks were sufficient for 44.81 days as of June 5, while diesel inventories could cover 45.21 days of demand.

Kerosene stocks remained particularly robust at 143.09 days of supply.