For Leo Bellas, one of the hardest parts of running a fuel import business in the country is not just navigating volatile global markets — it is explaining them.

As president of Jetti Petroleum Inc., Bellas often finds himself translating complex global supply disruptions into something motorists can understand every time they pull up to the pump. In a country that imports nearly all of its fuel, he said, global shocks quickly become local realities.

“The Philippines imports almost all of its fuel,” Bellas said during an interview at Straight Talk, Daily Tribune’s online show, underscoring the country’s dependence on international supply chains.

That exposure was on full display when tensions in the Middle East jolted global markets, sending prices surging.

“When the war broke out, technically the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed because of the fear that the vessels that would pass through to get oil from the refineries in the Middle East would be struck down by missile or by fire,” he said.

“So practically, the supply coming out of the Middle East stopped.”

For importers like Jetti, the disruption immediately ripples across Asian refining hubs — the main source of finished fuel products shipped to the Philippines.

“For our company, we import 100 percent of our products, both diesel and gasoline from various refineries in Asia,” Bellas said.

But while price spikes often dominate headlines, Bellas said the deeper concern inside the industry is something less visible to consumers.

“For us importers, our fear is the supply,” he said. “We were quite healthy until April… but if the flows stop, that’s a major problem actually for us.”

Explaining the mechanics of pricing

In periods of rising fuel prices, oil companies often face public suspicion that pump prices are being padded with excessive margins. Bellas has repeatedly tried to explain that the pricing system itself follows a transparent global benchmark.

“No, it’s not,” he said when asked whether companies are padding margins.

Instead, pump price adjustments are tied to an international pricing reference.

“We are basing our price movements on the past two weeks’ averages of Mean of Platts Singapore and of course, we converted to Forex,” Bellas said.

The system, widely used across the region, anchors domestic pricing to global trading data.

“So that’s the solution to why it’s more or less. You can see that it’s easy to predict.”

Ironically, Bellas pointed out that the current market situation has flipped the usual price relationship between retail and wholesale fuel.

“Currently, the situation is reversed. The price of the pump is lower than if you buy wholesale,” he said. “Unlike in normal situations, wholesale is actually relatively cheaper than the pump price.”

Panic buying and supply pressures

Price spikes have also triggered shifts in consumer behavior that can unintentionally strain supply chains further.

“The normal buying pattern practically doubled. You see people really fill up their fuel tanks to the brim,” he said.

Announcements of large price hikes can magnify that reaction.

“When the industry announced that there would be a big leap in the prices, people tend to really overreact.”

Those sudden surges in demand can leave smaller gasoline stations scrambling to replenish supply.

“We may expect some stations to really shut down because the deliveries could be coming in the following day,” Bellas said, noting that the situation can become visible to motorists when stations temporarily run dry.

Diesel’s outsized role in the economy

For Bellas, diesel prices are particularly critical because of how deeply they are embedded in the Philippine economy.

“Diesel-powered trucks, buses, ships, and farms… essentially the backbone of the economy,” he said.

When global diesel supply tightens, the ripple effects move quickly beyond transport and logistics.

“That’s the first thing I guess I believe that would be hit hard,” Bellas said of the transport sector.

“And definitely there would be a ripple effect on what will happen to other commodities and especially to transport fares.”

Navigating uncertainty

Despite the uncertainty in global supply routes, Bellas said the industry continues to plan — negotiating shipments months in advance while watching signals from producers and refiners.

“If nothing happens until the end of the month, April would be a reckoning point wherein oil companies would really be seeing what would be the supply situation the following month,” he said.

“We’re negotiating for the supply that we would be requiring by May.”

So far, he said, supply levels remain stable in the short term.

“For Jetti, we have about 30 days and we have incoming shipments that were already booked, that are already in transit.”

That buffer gives the industry time to monitor how the geopolitical situation evolves.

A call for calm

Even as he breaks down global oil dynamics, Bellas returns to a simple message for consumers navigating volatile pump prices.

“There’s still a choice actually as a motorist, as a consumer,” he said, noting that competition among fuel retailers can offer motorists options.

But he also urges restraint during times of uncertainty.

“Just fill up what you need for now and don’t really hoard or fill up too much,” Bellas said.

Because in a market shaped by global flows, sudden swings can go both ways.

“If you fill up and prices go up, you’re okay,” he said. “But if you fill up a lot and then prices immediately go down, it can go south.”

For Bellas, the goal is not to predict the next oil shock but to make sure consumers understand why it happens — and what lies behind the numbers flashing on the pump.

“We have to expect prices to remain elevated,” he said.

“But as soon as we see relief in the conflict and we see products coming out of the Middle East, we can expect prices to really go down.”