The ongoing tension in the Middle East is fueling fear and volatility in the local fuel market. The Philippines, which imports nearly all of its diesel and gasoline, faces economic ripple effects if the global supply is disrupted.

Despite these pressures, early signs suggest some stabilization.

“Although we’re seeing prices drop, they’re still elevated. That’s the situation right now,” said Jetti Petroleum Inc. president Leo Bellas in an interview on Straight Talk, DAILY TRIBUNE’s online show, on Wednesday.

“I think the reaction of the market is there — it’s positive. Prices are going down, but not yet at the level that we want. Still, there’s a break already; it didn’t really go up. We saw MOPS or Singapore prices scaling down or easing a bit,” he added.

Bellas noted that fuel prices are expected to remain elevated for another week or two but emphasized that the recent escalation has stopped, offering some relief to consumers.

Last week’s spike, he explained, stemmed from supply constraints linked to the Middle East conflict.

With most of the country’s crude coming from that region, vessels hesitated to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for fear of missile attacks, halting shipments and disrupting the fuel supply across Asia, including the Philippines.

“For us, it’s not just about prices. The fear is that there won’t be any replenishment of crude. If flows stop, that’s a major problem,” Bellas said. “We’re looking at alternatives, but if they aren’t available, it creates real challenges.”

Disruption fears

This fear has already affected local markets. Panic buying by motorists and smaller gas stations temporarily strained supplies. “The normal buying pattern practically doubled. People want to fill up their tanks to the brim, which contributes to tighter availability,” Bellas said. “Some stations even closed temporarily because deliveries weren’t enough to meet sudden demand.”

Diesel has seen the sharpest price surge, driven by distillate-rich Middle East crude and refinery shutdowns in Saudi Arabia. The spike is hitting sectors that rely heavily on diesel, including transport, logistics and agriculture.

“Prices are really high, and there will be a ripple effect on other commodities, especially transport fares,” he said.

On Wednesday, oil companies began implementing gradual, phased increases in fuel prices, signaling more adjustments at the pump in the coming days. Figures showed gasoline rising P1 to P6.50 per liter and diesel up P2.50 to P11.50 per liter, with further hikes expected as the slow, staggered price changes take full effect.

Amid rising costs, suspicions surfaced that oil companies might be padding their margins. Bellas clarified that current pricing reflects global supply and formula-based adjustments. “Pump prices are actually cheaper than wholesale right now because we base adjustments on Platts Singapore averages over two weeks, converted to peso rates,” he said.

Looking ahead, Bellas warned the situation could worsen if the Middle East tensions persist.

“The fear is still there, but regional stockpiles, including in China, are ready to supply if needed. The problem is more about timing and prioritization,” he said.

For consumers, he urged measured buying to avoid unnecessary losses. “Just fill up what you need. Don’t hoard. Prices will stay elevated for a week or two, but once supply flows normalize, they can come down quickly,” Bellas said.

He said the Philippine market is better prepared for crises now.

“We have more storage now, and the government’s requirement for a 15-day minimum stock level helps prevent panic. For Jetti, we maintain around 30 days of inventory, with incoming shipments already in transit,” he said.

Ultimately, Bellas emphasized that the current volatility stems from both fear and market fundamentals.

“Even if we could negotiate better prices with suppliers, the challenge is knowing when the product will actually arrive. Supply uncertainty is the real problem behind the high prices right now,” he said.