Former President Rodrigo Duterte might pass away before the International Criminal Court (ICC) concludes its case against him, political analyst and DAILY TRIBUNE columnist Atty. Edward Chico said Wednesday.

Speaking on DAILY TRIBUNE’s Straight Talk, Chico noted that ICC trials historically take eight to 10 years if the cases are complex.

“He might die before this is done with,” he said.

After the confirmation hearing concludes this Friday, the court has 60 days to decide if the case should proceed to trial.

History is “against the president,” Chico said, as the ICC usually moves cases forward.

“That’s going to be bloody because once they go to trial, the shortest time they usually take is eight years. One case lasted two years, but the accused admitted guilt, so that’s a different story,” he said in Filipino.

Duterte’s defense team is expected to present 47 witnesses, which would further extend the trial.

Chico noted that the ICC has limited funds and few sitting judges, meaning scheduling is crucial. The case could also face delays due to other ongoing ICC cases involving Israel, Hamas and Russia.

Chico reiterated his projection: “I really believe he might die.”

If that happens, he said, “whoever is endorsed by the family for political purposes would definitely win,” even if Vice President Sara Duterte faces impeachment, conviction, or permanent disqualification.

He believes Duterte has accepted his fate, and his children are aware their father might never be freed. While release is not impossible, history shows the process would be lengthy and painstaking, especially as witnesses often fail to appear, forcing the court to rely heavily on circumstantial evidence.

“Just think about it — how would you quantify it? Civil society claims 30,000 cases, but only 6,000 are documented,” Chico said, highlighting the challenges the court faces in compiling evidence.