The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) must be prepared to stand on its own in the opening weeks of any conflict and hold the line for up to 30 days until its allies come to its aid.

AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. on Tuesday said the directive from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. requires the military to be able to “resist, fight, and hold the line” while awaiting reinforcements from its treaty allies.

“We should be able to fight and preserve our forces for at least 20 to 30 days — so that’s what we are preparing for, to be capable of fighting for about 20 to 30 days,” Brawner told reporters in a chance interview at Camp Aguinaldo after the opening of the AFP’s joint DAGIT-PA exercise.

His statement highlights the armed forces’ evolving strategy under Marcos to build a credible self-defense posture while acknowledging that full territorial defense remains a long-term goal.

“Considering the threats that we are facing, of course, our capability compared to our neighbors — we still have a lot to do, we still have a lot to fix,” Brawner said.

“But as of now, personally, I can say that we are already a world-class armed forces. We have the capability; we can definitely defend our country. But as I said, it’s still not enough,” Brawner admitted.

Covering the entire archipelago with the AFP’s existing assets, however, remains a challenge, he added.

Brawner said recent acquisitions such as FA-50 fighter jets and new South Korean-built naval ships have enhanced operational performance, especially in joint exercises with allied forces.

“As of now, our focus is within the West Philippine Sea, on the northern part of our country, and we have seen that it’s still lacking,” he said.

He said that in any conflict, the AFP would be the first line of defense.

“Yes, we should fight first. We have to rely on ourselves first,” he said, framing the military’s approach as one of self-reliance, though still anchored on the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States.

He said the AFP is revising its Unilateral Defense Plan to adapt to modern warfare in the cyber, information, electromagnetic, and space domains. The 20-30 day benchmark, he noted, is a planning parameter that “will depend on the threats we will be facing.”

WPS tension

The AFP chief’s remarks came as tensions with China are escalating in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

Although Brawner did not mention any country by name, his statement was made against the backdrop of the recurring maritime confrontations with China.

A Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) aircraft recently reported “aggressive interference” from Chinese forces during a surveillance flight over Bajo de Masinloc within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

Beijing’s defense ministry later accused Manila of “blackmailing” China — a claim Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. dismissed as baseless.

Teodoro said such rhetoric reflects China’s “disregard for international law,” adding that the Philippines’ maritime activities are consistent with its sovereign rights under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Recent joint military drills with the United States, Australia and New Zealand have also drawn Beijing’s ire, which branded the exercises as “provocative.”

Teodoro countered that the activities are essential to “upholding international law” and strengthening regional cooperation among countries that “respect sovereignty.”

While Manila continues to rely on partnerships with like-minded nations, it is also keeping its communication lines with Beijing open.

President Marcos and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged a brief handshake at the recent APEC Summit — a symbolic gesture amid the deepening mistrust and the Philippines’ push to fortify its defenses.

‘Notable strides’

The Philippines currently ranks 41st out of 145 countries in the 2025 Global Firepower Index (GFP), placing it in the midrange of global military capabilities and reflecting a force that is steadily modernizing but still limited in sustaining prolonged or high-intensity warfare.

The GFP’s “Power Index” score for the Philippines is 0.6987, where a lower number denotes stronger capability. The ranking measures more than 60 factors, including manpower, equipment inventory, financial resources, logistical strength and geography.

The Philippines’ defense budget stands at approximately US$4.38 billion, with an available manpower pool exceeding 50 million and a coastline stretching 36,289 kilometers, a strategic but difficult-to-defend geography.

Despite these challenges, the AFP has made notable strides under its Horizon modernization program, now in its third and most ambitious phase.

The Horizon 3 stage envisions a 10-year, US$35-billion investment aimed at transforming the AFP from an internal security force to a credible external defense institution capable of multi-domain operations spanning air, sea, land, cyber, information and space.

Key acquisitions, such as FA-50 fighter jets, South Korean frigates, BrahMos anti-ship missile systems, and long-range radar and surveillance assets, have significantly improved the AFP’s operational readiness and interoperability with allies.

In stark contrast, China ranks third globally in the 2025 Global Firepower Index, with a score of 0.0706, placing it just behind the United States and Russia.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) commands the world’s largest standing military force, with more than two million active personnel and an annual defense budget exceeding US$225 billion.

Likewise, China has rapidly modernized across all domains —deploying fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighters, advanced Type 055 destroyers, and expanding its nuclear and missile arsenal.

Beijing’s growing blue-water navy and anti-access/area denial capabilities have reshaped Asia’s security landscape, giving Beijing a dominant regional presence and global power projection capability.