A low-pressure area (LPA) located over the coastal waters of Itbayat, Batanes has a high likelihood of intensifying into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

If it develops while still inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), it will be named “Auring,” the first tropical cyclone of 2025.

In a phone interview, PAGASA weather forecaster John Manalo said the system is expected to track northwest toward Taiwan and is currently directly affecting Batanes and Cagayan.

“So far as the LPA moves to Taiwan, it is currently directly affecting the Batanes and Cagayan region.”

As of 11:00 a.m. Thursday, Zambales was under a heavy rainfall warning due to the effects of the southwest monsoon. Manalo noted that the southwest monsoon is forecast to gradually weaken starting Friday, potentially leading to a decrease in rainfall over affected regions.

In Zamboanga del Norte, continuous rains have rendered a spillway in Sibuco town impassable due to strong water flow. PAGASA attributes the rain to the southwest monsoon enhanced by local thunderstorms.

The agency’s 24-hour rainfall forecast indicates that 50 to 100 millimeters of rain are expected to fall over Batanes, Cagayan, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro until Friday afternoon.

Aside from the LPA and Tropical Storm Wutip — currently approaching the Hainan Island-Vietnam area — no other cloud clusters or weather disturbances are being monitored within PAR.

While no gale warnings have been raised, moderate to rough sea conditions are expected across the seaboards of Northern Luzon, including Batanes, as well as the western sections of Luzon and Palawan.