The results of the 2025 Philippine midterm elections have sent shockwaves through the nation’s political establishment, exposing vulnerabilities within the Marcos administration and possibly reshaping the run-up to the pivotal 2028 presidential race. While midterms often serve as a barometer for public sentiment, this year’s results were far more than a temperature check — they were a clear sign of an increasingly restless electorate and a shifting political tide.

For President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the outcomes of the senatorial and congressional elections present both political and legislative challenges. While the administration had expected to maintain a comfortable coalition in the Senate and a pliant House of Representatives, the electorate had other plans. The resurgence of key opposition figures and reformist groups has significantly altered the balance of power, complicating the President’s legislative agenda and undermining his control in both chambers.

Most notably, the Senate victories of Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan came as a complete surprise — not only to administration strategists but also to major polling firms. Aquino, a former senator and cousin of the late President Noynoy Aquino, and Pangilinan, a veteran lawmaker and reform advocate, surged into the top ranks of the senatorial race, earning millions of votes nationwide. Neither of them was in the top 12 in pre-election surveys, a fact that now casts serious doubts on the reliability — and impartiality — of these surveys. Their comeback is widely seen as a reawakening of the liberal opposition, and possibly a prelude to a new political alignment in the run-up to 2028.

Adding to the surprise was the stellar performance of the Akbayan Partylist, which garnered the most votes in the partylist race, earning it the maximum three seats in the House of Representatives. This win is symbolic on multiple levels. Long seen as a progressive group focused on human rights and democratic reforms, Akbayan’s success appears to have restored some measure of credibility to the partylist system, which has been maligned in recent years for being co-opted by political dynasties and business interests. That a genuine sectoral group could top the list signals a potential revival of the system’s original intent — to give voice to marginalized sectors of society.

The results also cast a shadow over the success of the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte, whose hearings were put on hold to give way to the midterm elections. With the administration unable to win most of the Senate seats, we have yet to see how the impeachment will be conducted, if at all. The shifting composition of the House — less aligned with the Duterte-Marcos axis than in 2022 — makes the initiation of these proceedings more precarious. It reflects growing fissures within the once-dominant alliance between the Marcos and Duterte political clans.

With the opposition regaining footholds in both the Senate and the House, the Marcos administration is expected to face tougher scrutiny and more frequent legislative pushback. Bills once presumed to pass with little resistance may now encounter prolonged debate and tighter votes. Even more critical, this realignment could affect budget appropriations, investigations, and policy reforms — effectively putting the brakes on any sweeping initiatives the Palace had in mind for the second half of the Marcos term.

And yet, amid the political uncertainty, there is a silver lining. These elections, more than any in recent memory, appear to have genuinely captured the pulse of the Filipino people. Unlike the 2022 elections — where questions of disinformation, vote-buying, and political machinery dominated the conversation — the 2025 polls seem to have been defined by a more engaged and discerning electorate. Voter turnout was high, and the results suggest a desire for accountability, reform, and a new direction.

In a country long plagued by dynastic politics and entrenched interests, the 2025 midterms may be remembered as a turning point. Whether this momentum can be sustained remains to be seen. But for now, the message from the Filipino people is clear: change is not only possible — it’s already underway.