Nearly 69-million registered voters are expected to head to polling stations today, 12 May, in a midterm electoral exercise widely regarded as one of the most consequential in recent Philippine history.

Aside from choosing leaders who will fill 18,320 national and local positions — from senators to municipal councilors — voters will effectively shape the composition of a Senate that will sit in judgment at the looming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, expected to begin in July.

The House of Representatives, voting largely along party lines in March, impeached Duterte on three key charges: betrayal of public trust, culpable violation of the Constitution, and grave abuse of power.

At the center of the complaint is the alleged misuse of confidential and intelligence funds, as well as her alleged threat to have the President, First Lady and House Speaker assassinated in the event the government triumphs in a plot against her.

Unlike previous midterm elections, the stakes this year are heightened by political volatility, dynastic contests, and an electorate more attuned to digital misinformation and vote buying schemes.

Based on the latest pre-election survey by Social Weather Stations conducted from 2 to 6 May, ACT-CIS Partylist Representative Erwin Tulfo led the senatorial race, followed closely by reelectionist Senator Christopher “Bong” Go.

Other surveys had Go leading Tulfo by a wide margin.

Tulfo, running under the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, is the brother of incumbent Senator Raffy Tulfo. Their brother, broadcaster Ben Tulfo, is also eyeing a Senate seat, with other members of the Tulfo clan seeking seats in the House of Representatives.

Should Ben Tulfo secure a Senate position, the 20th Congress could see an unprecedented trio of siblings in the chamber.

Binays’ prospects

Another prominent family likely to maintain a foothold in the Senate is the Binays. Makati Mayor Abby Binay, currently polling in the top five with 31 percent voter preference, is seen to replace her term-limited sister, Senator Nancy Binay.

The intra-family dynamics extend to the local level, where Nancy is challenging her brother-in-law, Rep. Luis Campos, for the Makati mayoralty.

The Villar family, too, appears poised to continue its Senate legacy. Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar is angling for a Senate seat in place of her mother, outgoing Senator Cynthia Villar. She is aspiring to join her brother, incumbent Senator Mark Villar.

Senator Pia Cayetano, another reelectionist in the Magic 12, could extend her family’s presence in the Senate, serving alongside her brother Alan Peter Cayetano.

Half-siblings Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada and Senate Deputy Majority Leader JV Ejercito are already part of the chamber, reflecting a continuity of familial dominance.

Observers warn that if current projections hold, the Senate may again resemble its previous incarnation — marked by familiar names and dynastic control.

Political analysts see the impeachment of Vice President Duterte as the culmination of a broader power shift, marking the gradual marginalization of the Duterte political clan.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte, now detained in The Hague and facing trial before the International Criminal Court over alleged crimes against humanity linked to his drug war, has been sidelined from domestic politics although he is running for mayor of Davao City.

With key allies facing legal challenges and waning influence, the Duterte bloc appears to be losing its grip ahead of the 2028 presidential race. The outcome of the 2025 midterms could seal their fate.