The stunning ascendance of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost of the United States to the papal throne had many Vatican analysts perplexed. The new Pope, who has christened himself Pope Leo XIV, flew under the radar, and Vatican insiders were left scratching their heads on how everything unfolded.

The early favorites

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, was seen as the early favorite, a compromise candidate who could bridge the gap between the conservatives and the progressives; he is also Italian, and the Italians have been waiting for their chance at the Papal throne for47 years.

Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle was the first name mentioned among the progressives; he was often referred to as the “Asian Francis,” who could carry the reformist torch in the Vatican for several more years.

The conservatives were believed to be rooting for Cardinal Peter Erdo, a Hungarian and strong advocate for maintaining strict doctrinal orthodoxy. Another bloc of progressives who wanted to preserve Pope Francis’ legacy of prioritizing issues in marginalized regions, more commonly referred to as the Global South, were thought to be backing Cardinal Odilo Scherer of Brazil.

The papal conclave began on 7 May and quickly went into overdrive, and a day later, “Habemus Papam!” One Vatican historian commented that a quick conclave often indicates a strong favorite was elected, which reflects a broad consensus among the cardinals. The required consensus, a two-thirds majority, was achieved in only four ballots, making it one of the shortest conclaves in history. But the surprise came when an American cardinal emerged on the balcony of St. Peter’s as the 267th pope.

Peruvian from America

There isn’t any argument about the choice. Cardinal Robert Prevost is a respected theologian who led the Augustinian order as Prior General from 2001 to 2013. He spent nearly 20 years in Peru beginning in 1985 as a missionary, and later became bishop of Chiclayo in 2015.

In January 2023, he moved to the Vatican after Pope Francis appointed him Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, a department within the Roman Curia responsible for overseeing the selection, appointment, and governance of Catholic bishops worldwide.In other words, the cardinal did not only have the late Pope’s ears on episcopal appointments, but as the concurrent president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, he oversaw the Vatican’s entire relations in the vast region.

Latin America, with an estimated Catholic population of 425 million is home to 40 percent of the world’s Catholics. So, how does a Cardinal with such power and influence not be among the favorites to become Bishop of Rome? Because he is an American and the idea of an American pope was always viewed with skepticism due to geopolitical concerns. But if an American Cardinal is domiciled in Latin America with a Peruvian passport, then apparently, all bets are off.

How the conclave may have unfolded

If you look at the conclave by the numbers, there were a total of 133 cardinal electors — 51 from Europe, 23 from Asia, 17 from South America, 16 from North America, 4 from Central America, and 4 from Oceania; 108 of the 133 electors were appointed as cardinals by Pope Francis, and only 89 votes were needed to obtain the required two-thirds majority.

Although the cardinal electors were bound to complete secrecy at the conclave, information on how the conclave unfolded has come out. Sky News reported that by Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead with 45 to 55 votes and Cardinal Prevost had between 34 to 44 votes. But the Italian cardinal struggled to grow his consensus in the later rounds and eventually dropped out and endorsed the American.

It was also reported that the two Filipino cardinals, Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David, were involved in an internal battle, cancelling both their chances. In the end, although Cardinal Prevost was able to draw enough votes from other contending factions, his final tally of 92 votes was largely a result of the progressive faction, presumably the votes from the cardinals appointed by the late Pope, coalescing around him. The conservative bloc was left in the dust.

If anything, this conclave demonstrates that progressives are now well-entrenched in the Vatican. An American with deep ties to the Global South is now the leader of 1.4 billion Catholics, and that is enough to shake the political rafters in his home country, the United States.