As the world is watching, a mishandling of the International Criminal Court (ICC) case against President Rodrigo Duterte is impossible. The event’s recounting is supposedly rooted in a clash of two political powers.

The friction between the Marcoses and Dutertes is connected to the May 2025 midterm and 2028 presidential elections.

One commentary goes: “As the Dutertes face legal scrutiny, the question remains whether justice is being served or weaponized for political means.”

The political alliance at the start of the current administration established that former president Rodrigo Duterte would not be extradited to The Hague to face charges for his “war on drugs.” Still, the alliance has since soured over political differences.

Instead, the gap between the two powerful dynasties had widened with public exchanges of criticism and threats.

Duterte’s arrest drew highly polarized reactions. Human rights activists and the families of drug war victims celebrated the arrest as the culmination of a years-long struggle for justice. Yet many Filipinos sympathize with the Duterte family’s claim that the former president is a martyr to political vendetta.

Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached on 5 February and will be tried after the Senate election on 30 June.

On 11 March, Rodrigo Duterte was arrested for crimes against humanity committed during his war on drugs based on a warrant issued by the ICC.

The ICC investigation was stalled as the government sought a deferral and subsequent temporary suspension, arguing that the local judiciary could handle things.

The ICC probe was reactivated in 2023, although the new administration initially refused to cooperate.

But in late 2024, security officials said they would comply with any obligations to Interpol, if not the ICC. In January 2025, officials said the government was open to cooperating with the international body.

Most of the commentators were baffled by the apparent paradox of the former chief executive being surrendered to the ICC to face crimes against humanity charges and the upswing in popularity of the Vice President.

“The public appears to still have confidence in Sara Duterte, who was groomed to run in the 2028 presidential election. A February 2025 survey by Pulse Asia found that nearly all registered voters had heard about the impeachment. Of those, 45 percent opposed it, while only 26 percent expressed support,” Canberra-based East Asia Forum said.

Also noted was Marcos’ approval rating declining from 45 to 30 percent between September 2024 and February 2025.

The decline has continued, with Marcos’ approval rating now at 25 percent and his disapproval rating increasing to 53 percent, according to a March 2025 Pulse Asia survey.

In the meantime, VP Duterte’s approval rating improved from 52 percent in February to 59 percent.

At the heart of the discussions was the war on drugs, which was the signature campaign that got Duterte into Malacañang but which his opponents employed against him.

While most Filipinos were generally favorable towards Duterte’s drug war as it introduced a general peace on the streets, they were also uneasy about the undeniably high rate of deaths.

The 12 Senate seats will be the crucial battleground, as they are pivotal to acquitting or convicting VP Duterte.

Nine senators could block a conviction, keeping her presidential hopes alive.