PAGASA eyes impact-based forecast
‘There was a disconnect between forecast and actions; warnings were issued but they did not translate into timely actions at the community level.’
‘There was a disconnect between forecast and actions; warnings were issued but they did not translate into timely actions at the community level.’
The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said its shift to impact-based weather forecasting is improving disaster response among local government units.
Speaking at a forum celebrating the 75th World Meteorological Day, Edward Cajucom, national project manager of the National Project Management Office, highlighted past forecasting gaps that led to disastrous consequences during tropical cyclones.
“There was a disconnect between forecast and actions; warnings were issued but they did not translate into timely actions at the community level,” Cajucom said.
He also cited the government’s tendency to prioritize response over preparedness.
Impact-based weather forecasts provide potential impacts of weather systems on infrastructure, going beyond simple meteorological data presented in charts and graphics.
PAGASA introduced color-coded rainfall advisories in 2012. A yellow rainfall warning indicates 7.5 to 15 millimeters of rain within an hour, potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. An orange warning signifies 15 to 30 millimeters of rain, and a red warning indicates more than 30 millimeters, posing severe flooding and requiring urgent evacuation.
Cajucom stressed that impact-based forecasts help residents better understand expected situations.
“We don’t want to just capacitate the weather forecasters as the provider of weather information, but we also want to capacitate the users of the project to have the ability to interpret the data being issued by the forecasters,” Cajucom said.
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