Global logistics giant DHL has identified the Philippines as one of the countries to lead the growth of international trade in the next four years, along with India, Vietnam and Indonesia.

“India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to lead the growth in trade in the future. India stands out with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth, behind only China and the United States,” Ken Lee, CEO for Asia Pacific, DHL Express during the virtual launch of DHL Trade Atlas 2025, said on Friday.

Based on the recent report of the Philippine Statistics Office, the country’s total external trade in goods in January 2025 hit $17.82 billion, an annual increase of 9.1 percent from the $16.32 billion of the total external trade in the same period of the previous year.

In December 2024 and January 2024, the total external trade in goods recorded annual declines of 1.6 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

DHL Express CEO John Pearson said between 2024 and 2029, the four countries are forecasted to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth.

The countries expected to deliver the strongest trade growth. Countries with strong trade growths will also be found in Africa and Latin America.

“At the level of major world regions, the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029 is forecast for South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the ASEAN countries — with compound annual growth rates between 5 and 6 percent. All other regions are forecast to grow at rates of 2 to 4 percent,” according to Pearson.

Global forecast

According to recent forecasts, goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1 percent from 2024 to 2029.

“Even if the new US administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years — but at a much slower pace,” the study said.

“The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals highly encouraging insights. There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It’s impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In today’s global business landscape, DHL can assist customers in reevaluating their supply chains by establishing a balanced approach between cost and risk, ensuring they are both efficient and secure,” Pearson explained.

The DHL Trade Atlas, presented by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business, analyzes shifts in trade patterns and provides insights into how Asia generates opportunities in a turbulent world.

 An extension of the established DHL Global Correctness Report, the DHL Trade Atlas maps the most important trends and prospects of global trade in goods, providing fact-based insights for businesses and policymakers in Asia.

In the face of geopolitical tensions and concerns about widespread tariff increases, the report features data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.