Incumbent President Daniel Noboa clutched onto a razor-thin lead in violence-hit Ecuador’s election Sunday, after a stronger-than-expected challenge from a leftist rival who looked set to force a second-round run-off.

With about 90 percent of the ballots counted, Noboa had garnered 44.4 percent of the vote and rival Luisa Gonzalez was on 43.9 percent, official results showed.

Gonzalez, a 47-year-old single mother of two, told elated supporters in Quito that they had achieved a “great victory” by forcing what she called a “statistical tie.”

“We have won,” she claimed.

The telegenic lawyer-turned-lawmaker had trailed heavily in preelection surveys. Some exit polls had even predicted that Noboa would garner the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a head-to-head contest in April.

But the election was seen by many as a referendum on the country’s stalled economy and on Noboa’s hardline security response in the face of record rates of murder, kidnapping and extortion.

In just a few years, cartels vying for control of Pacific ports and lucrative cocaine trading routes to Europe and Asia have transformed Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world to one of the most dangerous.

During his 15 months in office, Noboa has declared a state of emergency, deployed the army to the streets and gathered extraordinary executive powers to curb cartel violence.

He deployed heavily armed soldiers to polling stations across the country on election day, and the land borders with Colombia and Peru were closed.

Both Noboa and Gonzalez were shadowed at public events by a phalanx of special forces, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2023 election, when a leading candidate was assassinated.

“We’re only human. Of course, you feel afraid,” candidate Gonzalez told AFP from her childhood home on the eve of the vote.

But this time round the only election-related incidents were about 20 people cited for breaking a strict three-day alcohol ban.

More than 10 million votes have been counted so far, but it could be some hours before the full tally is known.

Still, Noboa’s supporters were in a jubilant mood, lighting fireworks in Quito and Guayaquil, the country’s two largest cities.

“We came to support the president, we want him to support us and change the country,” said 52-year-old secretary Myriam Medrano on the streets of the capital.

Gonzalez’s political mentor — polarizing exiled ex-president Rafael Correa — was also bullish about the prospects of victory.

“We are going to PASS Noboa,” he said in a social media post.