The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) raised P27.6 billion from Treasury bills (T-bills) auctioned off on Monday as rates declined amid expectations of elevated but manageable inflation.

The BTr auctioned 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day debt papers, resulting in total bids of P70.6 billion or 3.2 times oversubscription compared to its initial offer of P22 billion.

The BTr upsized its award to P9.8 billion from P7 billion for the three-month papers. They fetched an average rate of 5.101 percent, down from 5.113 percent posted in the auction last 27 January.

Another P9.8 billion for the six-month papers, up from the P7-billion initial offer, were awarded by the Treasury.

These papers posted an average rate of 5.477 percent, slightly lower than the 5.488 percent in last week’s auction.

Likewise, the BTr awarded P8 billion for the one-year papers as initially programmed. They fetched an average rate of 5.671 percent, dropping from 5.724 percent.

Resilient economy

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said T-bills’ rates reflected investors’ anticipation of a resilient economy due to possible lower policy rates from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and manageable inflation rates.

BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. had said that the Monetary Board might ease the benchmark for interest rates by a total of 50 basis points to 5.25 percent this year to drive higher household consumption of goods and services.

Ricafort said this would support consumers’ appetite for purchases as the BSP projected in its October meeting that overall prices could settle at 3.4 percent this year or still within the central bank’s target of 2 to 4 percent.

“Demand slowed down in January, after the seasonal increase in demand during the Christmas and New Year holidays,” he said.

Slight decline in inflation

Union Bank of the Philippines chief economist Carlo Asuncion expects a slight decline in overall inflation in January to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent in December, as “prices of housing rental, electricity, water, and gas ease to less than 2 percent.”

Asuncion added that rice prices grew by just 0.8 percent year-on-year, signaling higher chances for the BSP to lower its policy rate amid low inflationary risks.

Remolona said the BSP will likely ease its policy rate “gradually” to prevent inflation spikes from geopolitical tensions and high tariffs on US imports under the Trump administration.