Achieving an upper middle-income status is in the bag if the country can sustain its growth momentum and meet key targets through strategic investments, policy reforms and a favorable economic environment.

The government’s ability to implement reforms, manage inflationary pressures, and boost investor confidence will be crucial in sustaining long-term growth and economic stability.

Projections from state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) reinforce optimism, with a forecast of a 6.1 percent year-on-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025, bolstered by easing inflation and policy rates that will enhance consumption and investment.

The anticipated growth is further fueled by rising household consumption, supported by improved employment, steady remittance inflows and election spending.

These positive projections are detailed in the PIDS study titled “Macroeconomic Prospects of the Philippines in 2024–2025: Toward Upper Middle-Income Status.”

It identifies key drivers of progress, such as enhanced macroeconomic stability, effective governance, and deeper integration into international trade and investment networks.

Authored by PIDS senior research fellow John Paolo Rivera, research specialist Mark Gerald Ruiz, and research analyst Ramona Maria Miral, the study also underscores the critical roles of the robust Information Technology-Business Process Outsourcing (IT-BPO) sector and the government’s Build, Better, More infrastructure program in driving economic recovery.

Central to this recovery is consumer spending, which remains a major growth driver.

Backed by a youthful and growing population, stable inflation and consistent remittances from overseas Filipino workers, consumer demand is further strengthened by the return of more Filipinos to the workforce and improving wages.

Together, these factors create a solid foundation for sustained economic growth.

Despite the promising trends, the study highlights challenges that could temper growth in 2025, chief among these is the global economic slowdown, which poses risks to the demand for Philippine exports.