Sell, baby, sell

A major exploration concern appears to be taking the exit door from one of the Philippines’ biggest, but most politically complicated, natural gas prospects.

Nosy Tarsee has learned that a mining firm that has sat on a gas block at sea for years has received an offer it may find hard to refuse.

The block lies in waters that China also claims, and it has been frozen since 2022 because the government stopped all drilling there. Since then, the miner has held a prize it cannot touch, much like a man who owns a lovely house that he is not allowed to enter.

Now a buyer has come forward, and it belongs to the same corporate family as the miner, so the money would simply move from one pocket to another. Nosy Tarsee’s source says that no price has been set because a valuer must first decide what the 30 percent stake is worth, and the government must also say yes.

Here is what makes Nosy Tarsee’s whiskers twitch. When a buyer and a seller share the same parent, the price draws stares, especially from small shareholders who wonder whether they will get their fair share.

The books show about P8.58 billion in oil-and-gas assets, but that number isn’t the price, and it isn’t even the exact value of the stake.

If the price is too low, minority holders will say that the family sold the gas dream cheaply to itself. If it is too high, they will ask why anyone would pay so much for a field nobody may drill.

Meanwhile, the miner says it could use the cash to dig new mines, buy new assets, or pay shareholders, which would be sweet music to investors who have waited a long time.

Whether that tune gets played depends on the price, the taxes, and whether the buyer pays all cash.