2024 takeaway: Build more, not battle more

We made a simple linear regression analysis using data points for the year 2024 from the three leading survey firms — Pulse Asia, SWS and Octa Research — on the public trust ratings of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte correlating the rise and decline of their ratings to the key political and national events with the Marcos-Duterte alliance intact (or broken) a dummy variable.

The regression analysis showed that when the alliance was intact, their trust ratings were significantly high. But when the alliance broke down — oh, what a fall from grace! (no, not the Piattos bearing kind).

According to SWS, PBBM’s trust rating fell from 57 percent in March to a mere 29 percent by December, with Pulse Asia and Octa also showing a downward spiral. Inday Sara’s ratings? From a high of 71 percent to a plummeting 23 percent by December.

The results of the data analysis are crystal clear, Filipinos have evolved into a discerning audience, demanding leaders who can deliver stability and development rather than a reality show of political vendettas.

This was after all what the UniTeam built its political promise on. Sara Duterte was 2024’s biggest revelation. Billed as the “Davao Eagle,” projecting a formidable image of power and might, she falsely assumed that she was the wind beneath the Marcos-Duterte alliance’s wings.

What we all witnessed from July (her formal break by resigning as DepEd secretary) to the end of the year was less an eagle, but more a cuckoo. The cuckoo bird is associated with unconventional behavior, much like patients in a mental institution. Each political squawk and peck at PBBM seemed to expose her for what she really is: a cuckoo bird, relying on borrowed prestige rather than her own feathers.

Sara and her asylum of cuckoos believed so much in their own deception and their sense of false grandeur. Much like the cuckoo bird known for laying its eggs in the nests of other birds, forcing them to care for its offspring, Sara thought she could just rely on her father’s perceived political legacy rather than earn it through her own merit and leadership skills. Like the cuckoo’s exploitative behavior, she passed the buck to her lowly staff to explain her misuse of public funds.

The dummy variable analysis laid bare the truth: the Marcos-Duterte alliance was like the perfect nest for public trust. The correlation between the alliance’s breakdown and the declining trust ratings is evident. Disrupt that, and you’re left with a cuckoo bird, all squawk and no substance. Mimicking a past political style or the support of the times has proven to be a misfit.

The public trust ratings also revealed several dynamics. Sara Duterte and her father’s murder of crows (or army of trolls) cannot effectively present themselves as the legitimate political opposition because every time they attacked PBBM, Sara’s ratings plummeted. After all, the public knows that even the PDP-Laban threw its hat behind BBM in 2022.

PBBM was right all along in his strategy of not engaging. While his trust rating suffered from the alliance’s fallout, this is not of his own doing. I believe the President studies the data and the data suggests that the Filipino tolerance for political drama is low.

To regain and maintain trust, he must avoid the pitfalls of political family squabbles. The 2024 data underscores that political stability is not just preferable but essential in maintaining public trust. Leaders who engage in or provoke political instability are on a path of diminishing returns, both in public confidence and in their ability to govern effectively.

Contrary to Duterte’s narrative, PBBM has proven himself to be an astute, observant leader. He has the ability to understand and see things clearly and not be dragged in the mud. He has slowly consolidated political alliances to counterbalance Duterte’s power base in the provinces — who are all beginning to recognize the risks of aligning with a potentially declining figure.

While Sara is at the “point of no return,” PBBM adopts a “never say never” stance. Despite Inday Sara’s breaches of ethical, legal and constitutional boundaries, still the President avoids confrontation and regards all these as distractions from the real issues of governance and economic progress.

These are all the correct strategies to remain in control of the political narrative. The public message is to build more not to battle more.

In 2024, we saw the President cultivate his own independent leadership brand. He showed the Filipino people that he can rise above the fray. True power lies not in the spectacle of conflict but in the quiet strength of unity and progress.