Boom or bust factors

What is the common denominator among the elections next year, the Bangsamoro autonomous region and the West Philippine Sea conflict?

The three seemingly unrelated issues will be crucial in determining the immediate future of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s administration and of the nation.

Security experts believe that what happens over the next 13 months will determine the nation’s progress and influence internationally, or “hamstring it.”

“The dominos will fall one way or the other, beginning with whether a peaceful transition in the Bangsamoro can be fully realized,” the Washington DC-based think tank United States Institute of Peace (USIP) indicated.

The group, which advises US leaders on security issues, stated that while the communist threat has been significantly weakened, the extraordinary success of the peace efforts between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the government, which led to the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), has brought the most promising hope for peace and stability in Mindanao in generations.

It considers the BARMM’s first elections scheduled for May 2025 as a crossroads as it will end the transition period. It will be the most significant milestone “of the peace agreement to be met and the threats posed by various peace spoilers to be quelled.”

It said any nation that “cares about Beijing’s destabilizing impact in the Indo-Pacific must also care about the fortunes of the Bangsamoro peace process.”

Peace in the south is only the first of several critical issues that Manila must grapple with. While the stakes are high, the odds and momentum favor the Philippines, according to the US institution.

USIP argues that the improved situation in Mindanao, cemented in the elections next year, would allow the Armed Forces of the Philippines to focus on external defense.

Without a sufficiently stable Bangsamoro region, the Philippines will be unable to fully commit the time, resources, and focus necessary to transform its military for territorial defense.

Worse than that, USIP said such a future contingency would mean the Philippines would face simultaneous threats to its internal stability and external sovereignty.

A more stable and coherent Philippines, USIP indicated, would allow the nation to take full advantage of the demographic and economic opportunities before it.

Due to decades of socioeconomic struggle and internal instability, the Philippines has not reached its full potential in terms of economic and geopolitical influence.

By its geography alone, the Philippines is arguably Southeast Asia’s most strategically important country, USIP pointed out.

It cited recent events that indicated the Philippines has rapidly emerged as one of the most consequential Indo-Pacific countries, primarily driven by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s “transformative policies on national security, defense, and foreign relations.”

USIP considered the recent trilateral meeting with the United States and Japan in Washington, D.C. a testament to the nation’s growing status on the world stage.

Challenges remain for the nation, continuing its trajectory to become a pivotal part of the region.

According to USIP, successfully navigating the peace process will define its ability to reorient its posture toward addressing China’s aggression.

Harnessing economic and demographic factors will also be crucial to the Philippines’ growth and ensuring that it has the capability and capacity necessary for its military modernization goals.

How PBBM’s administration emerges from the intertwined concerns will determine the country’s role in the region and the status of Filipinos in the next decade.