USDA projection 'exaggerated' says agri group

The Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura contradicted on Tuesday the United States Department of Agriculture's recent report on the Philippines’ projected import of 3.8 million metric tons of rice this year, asserting that their estimation is often inaccurate.

In a radio interview, SINAG president Rosendo So cited that previous reports from the USDA about their estimated Philippine rice imports last year were inexact.

“If we see their projection last year, we will reach 3.9 million metric tons, then around October they lowered it by 3.5 metric tons, and the actual entry based on record is 3.22 metric tons, so that means the USDA's projection, it's not definite,” he said. “Of course, there are many factors; what is the situation really, but if we look at last year, the [projection] was far, exaggerated.”

To further explain that the direction for the past years under the former president Rodrigo Duterte administration was to import rice, but now, the direction is more on local production, resulting in the reduced registered rice imports last year.

“We hope that is the direction of the Department of Agriculture so that we can continue to plant in our country,” saying that growers who stopped planting went back to farming.

Lower rice prices in March

So said they are expecting a drop in rice farmgate prices in March, when the domestic harvest poses favorable results.

“When our local production increases, the price will be lower because there is no transport from other countries to here. We expect our harvest in the third week of March...the price will be 45 pesos lower; it will not reach 50 plus.”

When asked what the agriculture group's estimated volume of the country's rice imports this year, So said it is between 3.2 and 3.3 million metric tons, which will be enough despite El Nino.

He said that current standing crops are adequate but noted that they need to reassess water irrigation in farmlands due to the ongoing dry spell, adding that a survey in February is crucial to estimating the approximate harvest in March.

Moreover, So said they are continuously monitoring farming situations in Isabela, Nueva Ecija, and Pangasinan to assess domestic harvests in March.

On top of these, So is expecting for good domestic harvest, saying that larger farmland was maximized this year compared to last year.

“So what we say is the USDA projection; we can't say it's right either,” he stressed.

Based on the USDA’s Economic Research Service rice outlook on 17 January, the country is currently estimated to import 3.8 million metric tons of rice this year.

It also forecasts that the country will remain the top rice importer worldwide, followed by China, Indonesia, the European Union, Nigeria, and Iraq.

The USDA cited the Philippines’ importation of rice as of 11 January as 56,090.63 MT, coming mainly from Vietnam.