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COMMENTARY

Investments renaissance

IMF debunked another smear, this time about the Maharlika Investment Fund being a burden to Filipinos.

Chito Lozada·11 October 2023, 10:00 pm

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Assessments that investments are stagnating and the economy is slowing down have a sinister agenda, considering that these are not factual.

External situations are getting progressively worse, which puts pressure on the global economy, but growth in the region remains resilient, particularly in the Philippines, which the International Monetary Fund projected.

IMF forecast growth to hit 5.3 percent by the end of the year and spring higher to 5.9 percent in 2024, which are levels that are only next to India's pace-setting 6.3 percent for this year and the next.

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While capital inflows remain modest, some $753 million in foreign direct investments were recorded last July from $555 million a year ago.

Fitch Ratings recently upgraded the outlook on the economy from "negative" to "stable" in its latest assessment.

Fitch said the upgrade reflected Fitch's improved confidence that the Philippines is returning to strong medium-term growth.

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It expected a higher GDP expansion of 6 percent after a record outturn of 7.6 percent in 2022.

An IMF team that visited the country early this month said the slowdown to 4.3 percent in the second quarter was primarily due to the weak global economy and tightened policy settings.

The multilateral lender said an acceleration in public spending and improved external export demand supports the steady growth trajectory.

Downside risks will all come from external factors, including a persistently high global and domestic inflation that may require further tightening of monetary policy, an abrupt global slowdown, an intensification in geo-political tensions, and depreciation pressures stemming from capital outflows under volatile market conditions.

While the detractors harp on the supposed poor governance, the factor was never mentioned in the various assessments of the country's prospects.

A more resilient US economy and a rebound in domestic demand supported by easing financial conditions will keep the economy humming.

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Fiscal stability is also the product of the pursuit of reform that sustained growth for the past two decades.

Another factor that will strongly support robust growth is the demographic sweet spot, which is much of the working-age population.

The dividend from the young population "will depend on further investments to diversify exports, promote the acquisition of new skills, and enhance connectivity across the archipelago to harness the digital economy," according to IMF.

IMF debunked another smear, this time about the Maharlika Investment Fund being a burden to Filipinos.

It said the sovereign fund could contribute to the push for closing infrastructure gaps and green investments by following best practices in strategic investment management and accountability frameworks.

Prognoses from independent sources, or those outside government, are all rosy.

The European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines has even assessed that the Philippines is entering the "golden age" of investments.

It also emphasized that policy reforms such as the amendments to the Foreign Investments Act, Public Service Act, and Retail Trade and Liberalization Act, as well as allowing full foreign ownership for renewable energy projects, have improved investor sentiment.

"The Philippines is starting to enter this golden age of investments coming from Europe and from other parts of the world," ECCP executive director Florian Gottein has said.

EU-ASEAN Business Council executive director Chris Humphrey cited the country's strong economic growth, which is one of the fastest in Asia despite its slowdown, its large and young population, and the stability it offers to make the Philippines a strategic destination for European businesses.

"The reality on the ground here is much more positive than elsewhere in the region. So, if you look somewhere like Indonesia, they're going to have an election next year that will cause some instability. Malaysia had big political problems. It's unclear whether the government will survive this full term as well… You go somewhere like Thailand, where we just had an election. The future is looking a bit uncertain now. They've also got a very older population," he said.

All things constant, the Philippines will remain a global growth leader to the consternation of the insufferable critics.

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