Motorists could face a diesel price increase of up to P10.50 per liter next week as attacks on major oil routes and infrastructure deepen fears of tighter global supply.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. President Leo Bellas said Friday diesel prices are estimated to rise by P10 to P10.50 per liter next Tuesday morning, while gasoline could rise by P4.50 to P5 per liter.

The forecast is based on the first four days of Mean of Platts Singapore and foreign exchange averages from Monday to Thursday. 

If the forecast holds, regular diesel could climb to an estimated P84.39 to P114.21 per liter, while Diesel Plus could reach P101.80 to P121.81 per liter.

Gasoline prices could also rise sharply, with RON 97/100 potentially reaching P85.77 to P112.28 per liter. RON 95 could climb to P81.29 to P107.08, while RON 91 could hit P80.79 to P102.68.

The looming increases come as attacks threaten some of the world’s most critical oil supply routes.

“Oil prices surged higher after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, the region’s two most important oil transit routes, further deepening supply disruption worries. 

Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a key oil route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, forced a shutdown of the system and triggered concerns that the loss of Saudi export capacity would severely affect global energy supplies,” Bellas said.

Diesel is facing heavier upward pressure as supply concerns extend beyond the Middle East to Russia, another major supplier.

“Escalating tensions in the Middle East, a top supplier of diesel and crude oil grades best suited for diesel production, and attacks on refineries in Russia, which is another major diesel supplier, have pushed prices to record highs due to mounting concerns of severe product flow constraints and tight availability,” Bellas said.

Gasoline has also remained expensive in the Asian market as demand stays firm and traders weigh the risk of further supply disruptions.

“Asian gasoline prices maintained their strength due to firm regional demand and concerns that hostilities in the Red Sea could further curb supplies from the Middle East,” Bellas said.

Final pump price adjustments will depend on the remaining trading day and foreign exchange movements before the Department of Energy announces the allowable price changes for next week.