NEW DELHI, India — While debunking arguments on prices, their effect on the economy, and the ballooning debts, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Sunday admitted his administration cannot assure that the runaway prices of commodities and services can be tamed significantly this year.

He, however, is relying on the domestic and global uncertainties to ease toward the last quarter of the year to cool down the red-hot inflation.

“Well, first of all, the real problem that’s driving all of this is inflation. And what is driving inflation is that, if you look, there are several measures of inflation. Core inflation does not include fuel and food. Our core inflation is okay. We’re down in the mid-two or three percent,” he said during the Kapihan forum with members of the Philippine media.

Analysts warned that despite economic managers’ claim that the economic numbers were well within their forecast, Filipinos are not feeling their effects, bearing the burden of 6.1-percent inflation in August 2026.

According to the independent think tank Ibon Foundation, rising food and fuel prices are hitting poor Filipinos hardest.

Millions of families already live on grossly inadequate incomes, leaving them with almost no cushion against price shocks, according to its report.

Price increases were steepest for necessities. Rice inflation reached 19.4 percent, the highest since July 2024, with regular-milled rice climbing to P49.80 per kilo from P40.43 a year ago.

Ibon estimates that 7.7 million families, or 25 percent of the total, survive on just P12,835 a month, and the average minimum wage falls P795 short of the P1,309 daily amount needed to meet a family of five’s basic needs.

With three in five employed Filipinos stuck in poor-quality, insecure jobs, Ibon contended the Marcos government’s understatement of the poverty and jobs crisis has allowed social protection to remain grossly inadequate.

Routine price increases have resulted in worsening hunger, debt, and deprivation among Filipinos.

Ibon also estimated 22 million households require assistance during price shocks and calamities, yet the government’s cash assistance program targets only 7.6 million households with token amounts, and had reached just 5.6 million as of 1 September.

Ultimately, the study warned relief measures alone will not break the cycle of vulnerability. The group argued the government must strengthen domestic agriculture and manufacturing to cut reliance on imported food and fuel while generating stable, formal, better-paying jobs.

Global events blamed

“But, of course, oil, fuel and food. Food follows fuel. That’s where the inflation comes from. That’s why we’re trying to do everything that we can to keep prices down. That was one of the very first things that we did,” Marcos said.

He said core inflation depends on the latest situation in the Middle East, as the country imports oil from the region.

“But, you know, you have oil at $100 per barrel. Because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, there is no prospect of any new oil. There is a constant threat to oil supplies because they bombed the pipeline. The Red Sea is also becoming a war zone,” he added.

“So, nobody wanted to do anything. Everybody is afraid of what will happen next. They’re not sure of what’s going to happen next. Maybe just a select group knows what’s going to happen next. Cleverer than us, so they have good information, better information than we do. So that’s what’s happening in the world now,” Marcos said.

Spending must increase

Part of the government’s intervention in the weakened economic numbers, particularly the weakening peso, which closed at an all-time intraday low of P62.865 per US dollar, is to make public spending agile again.

“And then, actually, what happened is also we are starting to increase public spending again so the growth rates kick up. And I think that will take effect very soon. You’ll begin to see how public spending works,” he said.

After revealing that flood control projects in the country were rigged and the funds stolen by erring government officials in his 2025 State of the Nation Address, the Marcos administration halted construction contracts, delaying public spending.

He said the 2026 National Expenditure Program was not bid out because of the controversy.