The latest US tariffs on Philippine goods could further complicate an already complicated economic situation, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) Chief Economist Michael Ricafort said.

In a message to DAILY TRIBUNE, Ricafort said the latest round of tariffs, which took effect last Friday, could weigh on the economy beyond their direct impact on exports.

"[The latest tariffs] could again slow down exports, trade, investments, employment, and other related business and economic activities in global and [A]sian economies, similar to last year," he said.

"[E]xpect also possible retaliatory tariffs from other countries, similar to last year, that could further slow down economies worldwide," he added.

Last week, the United States imposed an additional 12.5 percent tariff on most Philippine exports after concluding that the country had failed to adequately block imports made with forced labor, raising the total duties on many Philippine goods entering the US.

The measure followed a Section 301 investigation by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which found that the Philippines had "failed to impose and effectively enforce a forced-labor import prohibition," placing it among 60 economies deemed to have safeguards weaker than those of the United States.

In response, Trade Secretary Cristina Roque said the Philippines maintains a strong policy against forced labor that is consistent with various International Labour Organization (ILO) conventions.

Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Perry Ferrer acknowledged that the new tariffs would affect the country's overall competitiveness, while Federation of Philippine Industries Chairman Elizabeth Lee said the Philippines still faces a 2.5 percentage-point tariff premium over regional peers Indonesia and Malaysia, despite retaining some competitive headroom.

The Philippines is among the Southeast Asian economies facing the highest additional tariff rates, a development that could weigh on exporters given that the United States remains the country's largest export market. Philippine exports to the US reached $13.44 billion in 2025, accounting for 15.9 percent of total outbound shipments, although this was down from $14.5 billion in 2024.

The latest duties follow Washington's earlier decision to reduce its temporary tariff on Philippine goods to 10 percent after a US Supreme Court ruling in February struck down President Donald Trump's blanket reciprocal tariff policy. Before that, the United States had imposed tariffs of 19 to 20 percent following trade talks between President Trump and President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. in August last year.

Ricafort added that the latest tariffs could compound the adverse effects of the national energy emergency and the anticipated El Niño season.

"[I]n view of other external risk factors, such as a possible strong [E]l Niño drought and an escalating Middle East war that could widen global oil supply disruptions, [these developments] could lead to higher prices and inflation, as well as slower economic and GDP growth," he said.