As the battle for control of the Senate rages on, lawyer and political analyst Edward Chico believes the camp of Sen. Sherwin “Win” Gatchalian is only one senator away from securing what he described as an absolute and uncontestable majority capable of electing a new Senate President.

Speaking on DAILY TRIBUNE’s Usapang OFW program, Chico said he would not be surprised if Sen. Joel Villanueva eventually joins the Gatchalian bloc, completing a coalition of 13 senators.

“This is my fearless forecast. They no longer need to go to the Supreme Court because another senator will join the group of Gatchalian and they will complete the 13,” Chico said in Filipino.

The Gatchalian bloc, with 12 members following the defection of Sen. Chiz Escudero from the camp of Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, has anchored its takeover on the 1949 Avelino doctrine, arguing that a Senate president may be replaced by a majority of senators who have constituted themselves into the chamber majority.

Cayetano, who wrested the Senate presidency in May from Sen. Vicente Sotto III on a 13-9-2 vote, has challenged that interpretation and raised quorum issues. He maintained that he remains Senate president until somebody gets 13 votes to oust him.

The Avelino vs Cuenco case arose when then Senate President Jose Avelino was replaced by Mariano Jesus Cuenco despite questions over whether a quorum existed. The Supreme Court treated the issue as beyond judicial review, being a “political question.”

Chico, however, argued that the legal debate could soon become moot.

Under the 1987 Constitution, the Senate president must be elected by a majority vote of all 24 senators. That means any claimant who secures the support of at least 13 senators would possess a clear constitutional majority that would be difficult to challenge.

Other political analysts see President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. calling Congress, which is currently in recess, to a special session so that senators allied with the Gatchalian bloc can reconvene and formally test their numbers.

With the support of a possible 13th senator, the move would affirm Gatchalian’s hold on the Senate leadership ahead of the 6 July start of Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, which was scheduled by Cayetano, and before the 27 July resumption of the regular session of Congress.

Analysts say such a scenario would allow the emerging majority to consolidate control of the chamber and shape the political landscape leading into the 2028 elections.

According to Chico, the dynamics in the Senate often revolve around political survival and self-preservation.

As such, with the Gatchalian bloc getting the support of the Marcos administration, the coercive power of the state may be used, “as it is presently being used,” to persuade other senators to leave the Cayetano group.

“Of course, first of all, they need to have a reason to transfer. For example, Villanueva. I would not be surprised if he moves because that was the same reason why Chiz moved,” he said.

Chico was referring to separate cases linked to the multibillion-peso flood control scandal now hanging like the Sword of Damocles over the heads of Escudero and Villanueva.

Both Escudero and Villanueva have been identified by the Office of the Ombudsman as among individuals under investigation.

Escudero has been publicly accused of involvement in the alleged kickback scheme together with former House Speaker Martin Romualdez, while Villanueva is reportedly facing a plunder complaint that sources claimed was nearing filing.

Another senator, Jinggoy Estrada was taken into custody at the Senate on 1 June after the Sandiganbayan Fifth Division issued warrants for graft and plunder charges against him.

“You know, to be frank, I feel bad for Jinggoy because had he known that those other two would actually join the other group, he would have done the same,” Chico said.

According to Chico, a source claimed Estrada had supported the installation of Sen. Loren Legarda as Senate president before his arrest.

The source said Estrada later received a call discouraging him from pursuing the leadership push and he was instead urged to discuss his pending legal problems, effectively preventing Legarda from gaining momentum.

If true, Chico said, the circumstances would raise questions about why cases against various lawmakers were not filed simultaneously despite relying on evidence and testimonies that had been submitted at roughly the same time.

Chico also addressed rumors of restlessness within segments of the military amid the political turmoil.

He said any military intervention would be disastrous for the country.

“A coup would be a disaster,” Chico said, pointing to what he described as “banana republics” and failed states in Africa where military juntas seized power and weakened democratic institutions.

He also said he does not see martial law being declared under the current conditions.

“The paradigm today does not support martial law,” he said, contrasting the present situation to the circumstances that existed during the administration of the late President Ferdinand Marcos Sr.

According to Chico, the current President Marcos faces mounting pressure to ensure that his eventual successor is a political ally before he becomes a lame-duck president in the latter part of his term.

He said that for Marcos, there is no other option but to totally “crush” Vice President Sara Duterte by way of a malleable Senate convicting her.

He said Philippine political history offers numerous examples of former leaders being targeted by succeeding administrations.

As examples, Chico cited former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s prosecution of former President Joseph Estrada, and the subsequent Aquino administration’s actions against Arroyo and former Chief Justice Renato Corona.

Corona was impeached and removed from office after presiding over a Supreme Court that ruled that the stock distribution option used by Hacienda Luisita violated agrarian reform laws.

For Chico, those precedents help explain the high political stakes surrounding both the Senate leadership struggle and the emerging alliances heading into 2028.