The induced political conflict in the Senate and the impeachment circus that will follow serve as a convenient distraction, a poison fed to a public demanding accountability for the systematic raiding of the national budget under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The ongoing feud obscures the flood control scandal — rife with allegations of massive irregularities in project allocations, ghost projects and suitcases stuffed with kickback cash — while covering up the brazen perversion of public funds for political ends.

More recently, it has taken on yet another purpose, that is, to divert public scrutiny away from the deteriorating economic fundamentals now manifesting in painful daily realities for ordinary Filipinos.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slumped to 2.8 percent in the first quarter, a sharp deceleration from 5.4 percent a year ago and well below targets.

The slowdown arrived amid an oil shock triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driving inflation from around 2.2 to 2.4 percent in February to a three-year high of 7.2 percent in April, easing only slightly to 6.8 percent in May.

Adding to the price pressures is the low government spending resulting from the corruption debacle.

The jobless count is rising and hundreds of thousands more Filipinos are joining the army of unemployed in early 2026.

Rising prices, job insecurity and anemic growth combined signal stagflationary pressures that hit poor and vulnerable households hardest.

Higher costs for rice, fuel, electricity and transport erode purchasing power while livelihoods stagnate.

Self-rated poverty remains elevated, with surveys indicating roughly nine million families viewing themselves as poor and many more in the middle class being vulnerable to slipping backward.

The administration’s “business-as-usual” and performative measures, such as “ayuda” or social aid programs, fall short and reach only a fraction of those in need. Targeting is necessary, but providing too little to too few — excluding broad swathes of transport workers, fisherfolk, farmers and low income urban households — exacerbates the distress rather than alleviating it.

BMI, a unit of credit watchdog Fitch Ratings, has highlighted elevated risks of social and political unrest starting this year, driven by the cost-of-living crisis, which is being worsened by the domestic political tensions.

The impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, in particular, has deepened the polarization of Filipinos, as BMI notes that political divisions and perceptions of selective accountability could intensify the public discontent.

If the Senate trial drags on or leads to her conviction and removal, protests, rallies, even localized violence from Duterte supporters are expected, especially amid economic pain.

Analysts warn this could raise the risk of political violence if she is perceived as having been sidelined ahead of the 2028 elections.

The failure to deliver accountability, including the brains of the corruption mess, could further undermine government legitimacy.

Legislative gridlock stemming from the Senate friction will delay relief measures, the passage of the budget and economic bills, making the government appear ineffective or unresponsive.

Wider social discontent is expected as the Marcos allies head off their reckoning under another Duterte administration.

Combined economic hardship and a deepening partisan struggle could escalate into broader confrontations, according to a foreign advisory group that counsels key investors.

The prospect of a social upheaval evokes memories of the past, when another Marcos was forced from power amid eroding public trust, compounded by economic hardship and high-profile political conflicts, the same challenges confronting the current administration.

History appears to be coming full circle as stagflationary pressures weigh on the economy, creating a vicious cycle that threatens to leave the Philippines once more a doormat in the region.