A political analyst said Thursday the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte are already casting a long shadow over her 2028 presidential bid, even before her trial in the Senate begins.

University of Santo Tomas Assistant Professor Froilan Calilung, PhD, said in a television interview that the proceedings may already be affecting the public perception of the Vice President.

“There may not ultimately be a conviction because impeachment is a political process. But the impression that she may have done something wrong is sometimes more important than reality,” he said.

“It really casts doubt in the minds of the people, especially among supporters of the Vice President,” he added. 

The proceedings have unfolded against the backdrop of a deepening political rift between Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who ran together in the 2022 elections under the so-called UniTeam.

Their coalition unraveled after Duterte resigned from the Cabinet in 2024 and publicly criticized the administration, which contributed to the shifting political alignments in Congress that ultimately led to her impeachment.

Although Duterte continues to enjoy the support of her political base, Calilung noted that survey data suggest her advantage in the 2028 presidential race has weakened.

Damaged

“If the goal really is to weaken her leading to the 2028 elections, whether she is convicted or acquitted, I think the prosecution and the House were already able to accomplish that,” he said.

“On one hand, many expect this to damage her politically. But the opposite can also happen given that Filipinos tend to favor the underdog,” he added.

Duterte was impeached by the House of Representatives in May on multiple charges, including the alleged misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth and betrayal of public trust, marking the first time in Philippine history that a sitting vice president has been sent to trial before the Senate.

The impeachment case stemmed from allegations that, during her tenure as Vice President and Education secretary, Duterte mishandled confidential funds and failed to account for public resources.

Calilung said the prosecutors are likely aware that securing the two-thirds vote required for conviction — 16 of the 24 senators — would be difficult given the shifting alliances in the upper chamber and the recent Senate leadership change that benefited Duterte.

“It’s not really for them to actually secure a conviction,” he said. “Perhaps they see that as a long shot. To think that they need 16 votes, that would be very difficult.”

Trial proper

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Erwin Tulfo said the impeachment trial could begin on 6 July after procedural requirements and pre-trial preparations are completed.

“After the Senate President gives Vice President Sara’s camp 10 days to respond, the prosecution will have five calendar days to reply. After that, we will proceed to the pre-trial phase. This includes the marking of evidence, statements, and other matters. The actual trial may start on 6 July after our sine die break,” Tulfo said in a radio interview.

The Senate impeachment court has already served Duterte with a summons requiring her to submit an answer by 1 June.

If convicted, Duterte would be removed from office and permanently disqualified from holding public office, effectively ending her 2028 presidential ambition.

Tulfo said the impeachment trial is expected to be held from Monday to Wednesday, while Senate sessions and committee hearings will continue on separate days.

He said the Senate leadership has agreed to publicly release the trial schedule to ensure transparency and allow the Filipino people to closely follow the proceedings.