A political analyst warned on Thursday that the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte are already casting a long shadow over her bid for the presidency in 2028, even before the Senate impeachment court reaches a verdict.

In February, the Vice President announced her intentions to run for president in a press conference, following her father’s footsteps and hardline law-and-order stance.

“Deklarado na kasi ’yung intentions ni VP Sara sa 2028 na tatakbo siya sa pagkapangulo,” said UST Asst. Prof. Froilan Calilung, PhD. 

“On one hand, inaasahan na marami ang makakasira nito sa kanya. But the opposite can also happen given that Filipinos tend to favor the underdog.”

Duterte was impeached by the House of Representatives in May on multiple charges — including alleged misuse of millions of pesos in confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and accusations of betrayal of public trust — marking the first time in Philippine history that a sitting vice president has been sent to trial by the Senate.

The impeachment case stems from allegations that, during her tenure as both vice president and Education Secretary, Duterte mishandled confidential funds and failed to account for public resources. 

Lawmakers also included claims of unexplained wealth and even controversial past statements in which Duterte allegedly discussed harm against political figures — elements that dominated House hearings earlier this year.

Froilan said prosecutors are likely aware that securing the required two-thirds majority — 16 out of 24 senators — needed to convict Duterte will be extremely difficult, given the fractured political alliances in the chamber and the recent Senate leadership shift that has benefited Duterte’s allies. 

“It’s not really for them to actually gain the verdict of conviction,” he said. 

“Para sa kanila siguro, nakikita nila medyo long shot ’yan. To think na ang kailangan nila 16, medyo mahirap talaga ’yan.”

Yet Froilan stressed that conviction may not be the only way the impeachment is reshaping Duterte’s political standing. 

“It really casts a doubt on the part of the people lalo na sa supporters ng ating Ikalawang Pangulo,” he said. 

“Maaaring hindi man talaga magkaroon ng conviction dahil it’s a political recourse. Pero ’yung impression na mayroon pala talaga siyang ginawa… sometimes it’s more important than the reality.”

The proceedings have unfolded against the backdrop of a deepening political rupture between Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., former allies during the 2022 elections. 

Their once-tight coalition has since deteriorated following Duterte’s resignation from the Cabinet in 2024 and subsequent public criticisms of the administration, contributing to shifting blocs in Congress that helped push the impeachment forward. 

Duterte’s supporters have rallied behind her, but early survey data suggests her edge in the 2028 race has eroded. 

“If the goal really is to weaken her leading to the 2028 elections, whether she’s convicted or acquitted, I think the prosecution and the House were already able to accomplish that,” Froilan said, adding that the coming weeks will test the loyalty and resolve of her political base.

The Senate, acting as an impeachment court, officially convened earlier this week and has begun sending Duterte a summons requiring her to respond by 1 June before formal trial proceedings commence. 

If convicted, she could be removed from office and permanently barred from public post — effectively ending her 2028 aspirations.