Sara's presidential backing may further slump once impeachment trial begins: political analyst

Vice President Sara Duterte’s electoral support for the presidential race in 2028 is expected to slip once she is tried in the Senate impeachment court, a political analyst said Friday. 

This is evident in the recent Pulse Asia survey, showing Duterte tied with Senator Raffy Tulfo for a possible one-on-one presidential match-up at 46 percent, according to Ronald Llamas, former presidential political affairs adviser to the late Noynoy Aquino.

Llamas said Duterte’s standing in voter preference sharply fell from her usual rating of 80 percent, supposedly indicating her dominance is waning ahead of the 2028 elections.

“It means Sara is not invincible…What we see is, at best, Vice President Sara is plateauing. At worst, she's going down by increments. It's not dramatic, but she's going down,” he said in a radio interview.  

Llamas also cited a previous survey showing that Tulfo has higher numbers than Duterte for preferred president in the 2028 elections. He also referenced an April survey revealing that 61 percent of respondents in Mindanao support the ongoing impeachment trial against Duterte.

The 2028 mock presidential race survey by Pulse Asia was conducted from 27 February to 2 March, ahead of the formal impeachment hearings at the House of Representatives. 

Llamas believes that the damning testimony of Ramil Madriaga, the VP’s alleged “bagman”, and the report by the Anti-Money Laundering Council regarding the alleged suspicious bank transactions tied to the Duterte and her husband, Manases Carpio, would further slump the VP’s electoral backing in the upcoming surveys. 

“That's why they will continue to sink in the next surveys, because their management of the issue is poor,” he said. 

A portion of the Pulse Asia survey showed that Duterte and Tulfo tied Metro Manila at 42 percent. Tulfo maintained a strong lead in Luzon with 72 percent, while Duterte trailed at 19 percent.

The VP, however, dominated Visayas with 64 percent, while only 32 percent backed Tulfo. In Mindanao, Duterte’s turf, the VP also overwhelmingly led the race with 90 percent, while Tulfo only got 9 percent. 

Despite commanding support, Tulfo claimed he has no plans to run for the highest post in 2028 and hinted at running for reelection.

He also rejected calls to seek even just the second-highest office, claiming he had already learned from the mistakes of past candidates who ran for higher office after serving a first term, only to fail.

Meanwhile, the VP explicitly announced plans to succeed former ally-turned-foe President Marcos Jr. as early as February. She claimed that the ongoing impeachment efforts against her in the House are a veiled attempt to derail her aspirations.