Before Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano can worry about being charged with obstruction of justice, he may first have to survive growing rumblings of a counter-coup against him in the Senate.

On Sunday, the uncertainty cast a cloud over Cayetano’s announcement last week that the Senate would convene as an impeachment court on Monday, 18 May.

The question now hanging over the chamber is whether the Senate will actually constitute itself as a court — and, if it does, whether Cayetano will still be the one presiding over it as Senate president.

Political tensions inside the Senate intensified over the weekend as Cayetano came under mounting criticism for openly defying the Ombudsman’s preventive suspension order against acting Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Mao Aplasca.

Likewise, Cayetano was criticized for allegedly coddling, along with the other majority senators, Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, amid an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Law expert Domingo Cayosa, former president of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines, warned that obstruction of justice charges could be pursued against anyone who knowingly impedes an investigation, including the Senate president.

“He can be charged because obstruction of justice is a crime for any person, whether you are the Senate president or an ordinary citizen,” Cayosa said partly in Filipino during a radio interview Sunday.

Stonewalling

Ombudsman Jesus Crispin “Boying” Remulla ordered that Aplasca be placed under a six-month preventive suspension without pay after he allegedly fired warning shots inside Senate premises on 13 May at operatives from the National Bureau of Investigation.

The Senate leadership refused to enforce the suspension order and also declined to surrender CCTV footage sought by the Ombudsman, opting instead to provide the recordings to the Philippine National Police Criminal Investigation and Detection Group, which is conducting a separate probe.

Cayetano and several senators were accused of helping shield Dela Rosa from arrest after the former police chief stayed inside the Senate complex while tensions swirled over possible ICC enforcement operations by the NBI.

Critics alleged the shooting incident may even have been “staged” to facilitate Dela Rosa’s quiet exit from the Senate before dawn on 14 May. Cayetano maintained that the Senate would only surrender Dela Rosa if directed by a Philippine court.

Senate coup

Cayosa disagreed, citing Republic Act 9851, which recognizes cooperation with international tribunals involving crimes against humanity cases. “The law is very clear. You cannot add any conditions to it,” Cayosa said.

The political implications of the controversy now appear to extend beyond legal exposure.

Several Senate insiders have begun openly speculating whether dissatisfaction over Cayetano’s handling of the Dela Rosa issue and the Sara Duterte impeachment could trigger a leadership challenge before or during the impeachment proceedings.

Sen. Miguel Zubiri’s name has been floated as a possible replacement for Cayetano, who was installed as Senate president in place of Sen. Tito Sotto last week by 13 senators.

Cayetano himself admitted in video posts that his hold on the Senate leadership may be tenuous. The possibility has injected uncertainty into preparations for what could become one of the most explosive political trials in recent history.

Despite those concerns, Manila 3rd District Rep. Joel Chua said he was willing to give Cayetano the “benefit of the doubt” and trust that the Senate would fulfill its constitutional mandate.

Chua, a member of the House prosecution panel, said he expected the Senate leadership to respect the impeachment process regardless of political alliances with the Duterte family.

“We expect that their view will not change and that this will not affect the process because first and foremost, this is their constitutional mandate,” Chua said partly in Filipino.

The lawmaker also expressed confidence that evidence — not political numbers — would ultimately decide the outcome of the trial.

He cited the impeachment of former Chief Justice Renato Corona, where initial projections reportedly showed insufficient votes for conviction before senators eventually shifted positions after evidence was presented.

Prepping

House prosecutors are now preparing legal strategies, identifying witnesses, and organizing private volunteers who may assist during the proceedings.

Among the expected witnesses is supposed Duterte bagman Ramil Madriaga, who earlier claimed before House lawmakers that the Dutertes had discussed plans for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to step down to pave the way for Sara Duterte’s presidency.

On Sunday, the looming impeachment proceedings risked being overshadowed by a separate Senate drama that may first determine who controls the chamber when the gavel falls Monday.