China’s specter shadows Balikatan, says analyst
Pacific warning A Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Type 88 surface-to-ship missile launcher fires across the sands of Paoay, Ilocos Norte, during the Balikatan maritime strike drills between Philippine and US forces on 6 May 2026.
Courtesy of REUTERS/Noel Celis
China’s expanding presence and increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea (SCS) continue to shape regional security calculations, with a defense analyst noting Friday that fears of provoking Beijing remain a key reason why member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have stayed away from the annual Balikatan military exercises.
De La Salle University professor Renato De Castro said ASEAN participation in Balikatan, except for that of the Philippines, remains unlikely because of the bloc’s longstanding non-aligned foreign policy posture and China’s growing influence in the region.
“Of course, China has a very strong presence, so the ASEAN members do not want to irritate them [China],” he said in an interview with Super Radyo DZBB.
The analyst noted that tensions in the SCS have intensified in recent years as China continues to assert sweeping claims over nearly the entire waterway, including areas within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).
Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels have repeatedly confronted Philippine ships near Ayungin Shoal, Bajo de Masinloc and other disputed areas, with incidents involving water cannons, dangerous maneuvers and collisions during resupply missions.
Despite a 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating Beijing’s expansive claims, China has continued its patrols and military buildup in contested waters, prompting Manila to deepen defense cooperation with allies such as the United States and Japan.
The same ruling affirmed the Philippines’ sovereign rights over resources within its EEZ, including fishing grounds and energy reserves in the WPS.
De Castro said there was “no dramatic transformation” in this year’s Balikatan exercises despite the worsening regional security climate.
US forces tested a Typhon medium-range capability system and a Tomahawk missile system during the exercise, with launches conducted from Leyte to Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija.
The ASEAN regional bloc, composed of Brunei Darussalam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Timor-Leste, continues to rely on dialogue-based and non-confrontational mechanisms.