Retail fuel prices are poised for an upward adjustment next week, potentially ending three consecutive weeks of diesel rollbacks and sustaining a second straight week of gasoline increases.

Citing the first two days of trading data, an industry source said Wednesday diesel prices may rise by around P1 to P3 per liter, while gasoline prices could increase by P1 to P2 per liter.

The anticipated uptick followed a shift in global supply dynamics after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) departed from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance, ending nearly six decades of membership and removing the group’s third-largest producer from the quota system.

In the near term, the move is seen as bullish for prices, as the UAE’s exit reduces coordinated supply buffers at a time when global spare capacity remains tight, particularly after disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis.

Over the medium term, however, the impact could become structurally bearish, as the UAE gains greater flexibility to ramp up production independently in response to market conditions.

This week, fuel prices moved in mixed directions, with gasoline increasing while diesel and kerosene extended their third straight week of rollbacks.

Gasoline prices rose by P0.53 per liter across all variants, while diesel and kerosene dropped by P12.94 and P15.71 per liter, respectively, according to the Department of Energy.

Despite the increases in gasoline, ample domestic supply levels helped cushion the market, with the country maintaining around 54 days of fuel inventory as of 24 April. 

Gasoline stocks were estimated at nearly 54 days, diesel at about 55 days, and kerosene significantly higher at around 169 days, indicating sufficient supply to meet demand in the near term.