A survey on the potential effects of the ongoing oil crisis on Filipino households suggested that 1.34 million Filipinos face the threat of falling below the poverty line in 2026.

The study carried out by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) based its scenario on the current price of oil per barrel which is sat at $105 on top of a 35 percent increase according to local currency value.

Jose Ramon Albert, PIDS Senior Researcher, explained that their analysis considered all levels of income but placed into perspective the difference in effect that the crisis has depending on where an individual falls into the spectrum.

“Hindi pantay-pantay ang bigat ng epekto, ang pinaka-apektado, kahit na maliit ang epekto sa peso, ay ang mahihirap,” he stressed.

(The effects are not equally felt, the most affected, in spite of the miniscule effect on peso, are the poor)

Albert posited that the crisis was merely shoving the poor deeper into poverty as richer individuals could absorb the massive cuts to their income without necessarily facing staggering consequences.

Data revealed that the projected cut into poor households' purchasing power was going to be as much as 16.2 percent while those in the upper decile of society only face a reduction of 3.4 percent.

These results reportedly increased the national poverty rate which was at 13.2 percent in 2025 all the way to 14.4 percent by the end of the year.

It also detailed how poorer communities such as communities within Visayas and Mindanao were going to likely be hit harder with the issue rather than urban areas within Luzon despite generally consuming less fuel.

Just to put that into perspective, former LPG Marketers Association representative Arnel Ty revealed that 65 percent of LPG use was in Luzon, while only about 30 percent and 20 percent of usage was in Visayas and Mindanao, respectively.

The senior researcher expressed that the figures reflected the indirect effects of the crisis on households regardless if they use oil on a daily basis or not.

“Pag tumaas ang presyo ng langis, tataas rin ang presyo ng bigas, isda, karne, gulay–lahat ng mga pangunahing pangangailangan,” he explained.

(If the price of oil increases, the price of rice, fish, meat, vegetables, and all basic goods will also rise)

Aside from looking into the effects of the crisis, PIDS also investigated the effectiveness of relief efforts from the national government to resolve the crisis.

It found that direct support to vulnerable sectors was going to have a more considerable effect on curbing the effects of the price shock compared to simply providing fuel subsidies.

The research center claimed that the distribution of subsidy benefitted higher-income households more than it did vulnerable sectors that barely utilize fuel.