The record weakness of the peso and the surging global oil price has created a double whammy that will result in a doubling of the inflation rate in the coming months, hitting millions of poor Filipino families the hardest, according to the think tank Ibon Foundation.

The group stressed that claims that a weaker peso boosts exports and overseas Filipino workers’ (OFWs) remittances ignore the broader economic context and the real impact on households.

The peso breached 60 per US dollar last week, while global oil prices climbed to $100-$110 per barrel amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

A weak peso makes oil imports more expensive, compounding price pressures and accelerating inflation.

Ibon said price pressures were already evident. From December 2025 to 11 March 2026, rice prices in the National Capital Region rose steeply, with regular rice increasing from P38.94 per kilo to as high as P47 and well-milled rice from P43.90 to P55 per kilo.

Ibon said the dual burden is worsening conditions for millions of households and intensifying the daily economic strain.

“Around 14.3 million poor families are already highly vulnerable to price increases, while an estimated 3.4 million borderline poor households risk being pushed into poverty. This includes lower middle-income families whose real incomes are steadily eroding,” its report stated.

Ibon said that claims of export gains from the peso depreciation are overstated. From 65 percent to 70 percent of the country’s commodity exports are manufactured goods produced by foreign firms operating in the Philippines, with limited domestic value-added and weak linkages to the local economy. Any benefits from a weaker peso are therefore narrowly captured and do not translate into broad-based development.

Similarly, the supposed gains to OFW households are limited. While remittances may rise in peso terms, these will be offset by higher domestic prices.

‘Ayuda’ not enough

Transport group Piston national president Mody Floranda, meanwhile, said the P5,000 cash assistance provided by the government only gave temporary relief to jeepney drivers.

In an interview on DZRH, Floranda said the subsidy would last a driver only one and a half days, noting that they spend P3,600 on fuel daily, with each liter of fuel good only for two kilometers of travel.

“What we are calling for is for the government to focus on removing the high tax on fuel so that not only one sector will benefit, but everyone will benefit,” he said.

Floranda said his group was frustrated with the President’s decision to suspend the P1 fare increase for jeepneys that was supposed to take effect on 19 March, noting that it could have helped drivers who are only taking home P200 to P300 at this time.

“As of recent weeks where drivers were able to take home P500 to P800, now they are only able to take home P200 to P300, even if they operate 12 to 18 hours a day, because it only goes to the high fuel prices,” he said.

Band-aid measures decried

A two-day transport strike ended Friday, 20 March, but commuter advocates said the government failed to offer concrete solutions to the worsening impact of rising fuel prices on daily mobility.

Nanoy Rafael of the PARA Commuters’ Network criticized the administration for providing what he described as short-term palliatives, including limited free rides, instead of addressing the root of the crisis.