Amid easing tensions in the Middle East, a political analyst warned that any decline in global oil prices may not immediately translate into lower pump prices in the Philippines.

Renato De Castro, a professor at the Department of International Studies of De La Salle University, said the country may continue to feel the impact of high fuel costs despite ceasefire developments involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

In an interview on DAILY TRIBUNE’s Usapang OFW, De Castro cited the so-called “rocket and feather effect,” where oil prices rise rapidly but fall slowly.

He said that even if global benchmarks such as Brent crude decline, local pump prices tend to remain elevated due to pricing strategies of oil companies.

“They are businesses,” De Castro said, noting that firms quickly pass on increases to consumers but often delay price rollbacks to protect margins.

The Philippines remains highly vulnerable to global oil fluctuations, importing about 98 percent of its fuel supply.

De Castro warned that supply chains remain exposed to disruptions, particularly in chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions could quickly escalate and trigger new price spikes.

He described the current ceasefire as possibly just the “eye of the storm,” signaling continued volatility in global energy markets.

Beyond fuel prices, De Castro also flagged broader geopolitical risks.

He said Iran’s push to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, including proposals to impose tolls on passing vessels, could set a precedent that other countries might follow.

De Castro warned that China could adopt a similar approach in the West Philippine Sea, raising concerns over freedom of navigation and regional stability.

He urged Filipinos to view the situation as a call to strengthen national resilience, energy security and geopolitical awareness amid ongoing global uncertainty.