Prices of petroleum products in the Philippines are unlikely to drop immediately despite a conditional two-week ceasefire among the United States, Israel and Iran, experts said Wednesday.

Dr. Renato de Castro, an international relations expert, said that while global crude prices fell sharply after the truce, domestic pump prices will likely only “soften” gradually.

“It may dip slightly, but we should not expect prices to go down right away,” he said in a radio interview.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin echoed the cautious outlook, noting that the damaged oil infrastructure in the Middle East will take years to restore.

“It will take a long time for the world to go back to where it was before the war. What we just want is to stop [prices] from going up,” Garin told ANC.

Following the ceasefire, which included Iran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ensure safe passage for tankers, Brent and WTI crude prices fell by 15-17 percent, though they remain higher than pre-war levels.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. president Leo Bellas said the easing has already triggered sharp declines in benchmark prices, which could eventually translate to lower local pump prices if sustained.

“Domestic prices may make a U-turn from a projected increase to a possible status quo or rollback,” Bellas said. He added that initial MOPS readings showed diesel could fall by about $40 per barrel, while gasoline might drop by $10 per barrel.

Despite rising prices over the past month, the Department of Energy said the country has sufficient fuel stocks for more than 50 days. Total inventory stands at 75.05-million liters, with gasoline at 23.33-million liters, diesel at 32.52-million liters, kerosene at 142,140 liters, LPG at 10.27-million liters, jet fuel at 6.32-million liters, and fuel oil at 2.47-million liters.

Bellas warned the relief could be fragile, as markets may reassess once the full extent of the Middle East infrastructure damage becomes clear.

Government data showed that when the war broke out in early March, gasoline prices ranged from P68–P83 per liter, diesel P67–P108, and kerosene P61–P112. By mid-April, prices had surged: gasoline reached P86–P119, diesel P127–P172 and kerosene P149–P177.

“Motorists may see a pause or modest rollback next week if current trends continue,” Bellas said.

De Castro noted that current domestic prices are influenced less by supply and demand than by strategic and diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran.