Fuel prices may drop next week as global oil markets ease following reports of a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East tension.

Industry estimates based on the first three days of trading showed diesel may roll back by P2.50 to P3.50 per liter, while gasoline may see up to P1 per-liter reduction. 

An industry source who requested anonymity said the ceasefire has tempered supply concerns that previously pushed benchmark prices higher, offering motorists a measure of relief after consecutive weeks of hikes.

If the adjustments hold, pump prices would fall to P123.95 to P169.40 per liter for diesel and P85.55 to P118.90 per liter for gasoline, based on current retail levels from 7 to 13 April.

Oil companies are expected to announce official price changes on Monday.

To recall, Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin earlier warned that severe disruptions in the Middle East are keeping global oil supply unstable, limiting the country’s ability to see quick or meaningful fuel rollbacks. 

She said the damage to critical routes and infrastructure means the impact on households, transport operators, and businesses could persist well beyond the current conflict.

At a virtual briefing on Tuesday, Garin pointed out how deeply the war has rattled the global supply chain. 

“The war has been going on for over four weeks. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is cleared, there is no guarantee that Middle East supply will return to pre-war levels. Reconstruction may take months, even years,” she said.

Garin added that fuel prices surged more than 100 percent in just a month because of these disruptions, but emphasized that any subsequent decline will be far slower as supply routes struggle to normalize.