Political analyst and DAILY TRIBUNE columnist Atty. Edward Chico estimates that former President Rodrigo Duterte might die before the International Criminal Court (ICC) case against him concludes, once it proceeds to trial.

Speaking on DAILY TRIBUNE’s Straight Talk on Wednesday, Chico said that based on the ICC’s history, trials could last eight to ten years if the cases are not particularly complicated.

"He might die before this is done with," he said.

After the confirmation hearing concludes this Friday, the court has 60 days to release its decision on whether the case will proceed to trial. Chico warned, however, that "history is against the president" as the court usually moves cases forward.

"That’s what’s going to be bloody, because once they go to trial, the shortest time they usually take is eight years. There was one case that lasted two years, but the accused admitted guilt, so that’s a different story," he said in Filipino.

"In Duterte’s case, he will be presenting 47 [pieces of evidence], if I’m not mistaken, and it would really take a lot of time," he added.

Chico also noted that the ICC does not have abundant funds, and with few sitting judges, proper scheduling is essential. He added that Duterte’s case could be delayed further once cases against alleged crimes in Israel, Hamas, and Russia proceed.

A certain political outcome

Chico reiterated his projection: "I really believe he might die." He added that if that happens, "whoever would be endorsed by the family for political purposes would definitely win," even if current Vice President Sara Duterte is impeached, convicted, or permanently disqualified.

He believes that the former president has already accepted his fate, and that his children have also come to terms with the fact that their father may never be freed. Despite this, Chico emphasized that while release is not impossible, history shows the process would be lengthy.

Chico also revealed that the trial process is painstaking because witnesses often do not participate, leaving the court to rely largely on circumstantial evidence.

"Just think about it—how would you quantify it? Let’s give a specific example. How do you compare civil society’s claim of 30,000 cases to the documented ones amounting to 6,000?," he said.