A sharp slowdown in net migration triggered by President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies is weighing on the U.S. economy and is expected to persist into 2026, according to a new study.

A report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution said the number of immigrants who left the United States in 2025 likely exceeded the number who entered, marking the first time in at least 50 years that net migration may have fallen to zero or turned negative.

“Net migration was likely close to zero or negative over calendar year 2025,” the report said, warning of negative consequences for employment, economic growth and consumer spending.

The study estimates net migration in 2025 ranged from minus 10,000 to as many as minus 295,000. Researchers said the trend is likely to continue in 2026, citing ongoing policy effects.

Brookings noted that growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak in recent years, with immigration accounting for nearly all labor force growth. Beyond supplying workers, immigrants also drive demand for goods and services, the report said.

A sustained negative migration balance would have “important implications for the macroeconomy,” the authors warned, though they cautioned that recent reductions in data transparency have made estimates less certain.